AINTREE Free Tips and Trends – DAY TWO (Fri 8th April 2022)

Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 8th April 2022 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, JLT Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

As always, here at TQ we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Let’s continue.......................

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.20pm – Betway Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m110y ITV

2021 Winner: BELFAST BANTER (9/1)
Trainer: Peter Fahey
Jockey: Kevin Sexton

17/18 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
11/18 – Finished first or second last time out
11/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/18 – Aged 5 years-old
9/18 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 of last 11)
4/18 – Winning favourites
19 of the last 22 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
16 of the last 24 (67%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
23 of the last 30 (77%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
The last 9 winners ran in bumpers
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 22 runnings
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 25 runnings
Just three Irish winners since 1978 (2 from 26 this century)
10 of the last 21 (48%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

The Nicky Henderson-trained JONBON ran a cracker to be second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last time out and with no Constitution Hill to deal with this time can grab his first Grade One win. The Henderson yard have won this race 4 times since 2012. El Fabiolo and the other Henderson runner - First Street - can go well too and will give Jonbon a test, but the outsider of interest is the Chris Gordon runner - AUCUNRISQUE (e/w) - who has improved a bundle this season to win his last three and despite needing to find more looks a lively outsider.

2.55pm – Betway Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f ITV

2021 Winner: CHANTRY HOUSE (11/8 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico De Boinville

18/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
18/18 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
15/18 – Aged 7 or younger
15/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
15/18 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
14/18 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
8/18 – Ran in the RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase last time out
8/18 – Winning favourites
6/18 – Won last time out
4/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 3 of last 4)
2/18 – Irish trained winners
4 of the last 5 RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase winners to run have lost
Trainer Nicky Henderson, Colin Tizzard and Paul Nicholls have won 11 of the last 18 runnings between them
17 of the last 24 winners were aged 6 (6) or 7 (11) years-old
The last 18 winners were either French (7) or Irish (11) bred.
5 of the last 9 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
31 of the last 32 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
24 of the last 30 winners had won over at least 3m before
35 of the last 39 (90%) winners had won twice or more over fences
16 of the last 19 (84%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
20 of the last 22 (91%) winners had run in at least 4 chases
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989

Only the 4 runners here but still a cracking renewal. Bravemansgame bypassed Cheltenham and having won all four starts over fences is a big player here - he’ll be fresh after missing the Festival and will be hard to beat. However, L’HOMME PRESSE impressed in winning the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase last time at the Festival - beating another runner here Ahoy Senor by just over 3 lengths - and can go well again. He’s also unbeaten over fences (5-from-5) and even though slightly softer ground would have been better, he’s still won 3 times over fences on good-to-soft. It should be a fascinating clash, but I’ll take the Venetia Williams runner to remain unbeaten, providing, of course, connections allow him to run on this ground.

3.30pm – Marsh Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV

2021 Winner: FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES (2/1 fav)
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: Mark Walsh

18/18 – Raced within the last 30 days
18/18 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
17/18 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
15/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Aged 9 or younger
11/18 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/18 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
9/18 – Winning favourites
8/18 – Irish-trained winners
7/18 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
4/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/18 – Trained by Alan King
23 of the last 30 (77%) runners had won over at least 2m4f
31 of the last 34 (91%) winners were aged 7 or older
23 of the last 30 (77%) winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
13 of the last 26 (52%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
17 of the last 26 (65%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
23 of the last 30 (77%) winners had won or been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
13 of the last 17 (76%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
28 of the last 30 (93%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Only 1 past winner aged 6 years-old

It's hard to get away from last year’s winner - FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES - here. He missed the Cheltenham Festival in preference of coming here and that can pay off. He was last seen winning well at Ascot in Feb and being the top-rated in the field here, plus a proven CD winner, then he’s the one to beat. Of the rest, Funambule Sivola has to be respected after a good 2nd to Energumene last time at Cheltenham and before that won the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury. But the horse that came second in that Newbury race - SCEAU ROYAL (e/w) - can reverse that form. This consistent Alan King runner has been freshened up with 2 months off but will love the better ground here and only has 2l to find with Funambule Sivola, which he can find over this longer trip. Allmankind, Captain Guinness and Mister Fisher are others to respect.

4.05pm – Randox Health Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

2021 Winner: LIVELOVELAUGH (15/2)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Patrick Mullins

17/18 – Raced within the last 34 days
16/18 – Aged 10 or younger
16/18 - Didn’t win last time out
13/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/18 – Raced within the last 23 days
10/18 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
10/18 – Unplaced last time out
4/18 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/18 – Irish-trained winners
2/18 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
2/18 – Won last time out
2/18 - Trained by Willie Mullins (last 2)
2/18 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
5 of the last 7 winners carried 11-0 or more
Henderson, Mullins & Tizzard have trained 7 of the last 8 winners between them
6 of the last 7 winners were rated 141 or higher
5 of the last 7 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 14 (57%) winners raced in last year’s race
11 of the last 15 (73%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
11 of the last 17 (65%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
15 of the last 28 (54%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 4 Irish-trained winners since 1979
Just 1 British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just two winners aged 11+ (114 have tried) since 1994

Over the Grand National fences here. It’s a race the Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson yard have done well in before. Mullins has won the last two runnings too, so his ROYAL RENDEZVOUS (e/w) is the first name on the team sheet. This 10 year-old is having his debut over these fences but is a sound jumper and wasn’t disgraced when 2nd to the classy Fakir D’Oudairies last time at Clonmel. Henderson has several in the race - Mister Coffey, Janika, Morning Vicar and FANTASTIC LADY (e/w) and it’s the last-named that I’m taking a chance on. This 7 year-old has James Bowen booked to ride and looks the right sort for this race. Won well at Bangor two runs back and was a fine third at Kempton in a Grade 2 last time. She only has 10-2 to carry and with only 4 runs over fences can have more to give. The final pick is the Peter Bowen runner - MAC TOTTIE (e/w). The yard also has a good record in this - winning it last in 2012. This 9 year-old won the Grand Sefton over these fences back in November and was going okay when falling in the Becher Chase in December. He knows these fences well and will be spot on after a recent run at Newcastle. Bowen also has Francky Du Berlais in the race, who could run well too. Others to note are Five Star Getaway, Senior Citizen, Notebook and Battleoverdoyen.

4.40pm – Doom Bar Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV

2021 Winner: AHOY SENOR (66/1)
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Jockey: Derek Fox

16/18 – Had run within the last 35 days
13/18 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
11/18 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
8/18 – Won their last race
5/18 – Favourites that won
3/18 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 7)
2/18 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/18 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
1/18 – Irish-trained winners
Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0-from-8 (last 10 runnings)
13 of the last 14 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (93%)
21 of the last 25 (84%) won at least twice over hurdles before
21 of the last 28 (75%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
13 of the last 27 (48%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
14 of the last 21 (67%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

Banbridge was a good winner of the Martin Pipe Hurdle at the Festival and can well again - but is up another 6lbs here. Skytastic has done little wrong to win all 4 starts (2 over hurdles), but only just got home by a neck last time and will been more upped to a Grade One. Crystal Glory and Green Book have claims too and I think Stag Horn will be more at home on this flatter track than Cheltenham last time. But the two to side with here are the Paul Nicholls runner - GELINO BELLO and the Skelton entry - DUKE OF BRONTE. The former is a proven course winner here and heads here full of confidence winning easily at Newbury last time out. The better ground will suit and he’s another that missed the Cheltenham Festival to head here fresher. Duke Of Bronte has only run twice over hurdles but got off the mark in good fashion at Doncaster last month (11 lengths). Should improve for that and being a 100+ rated flat performer looks the sort to progress well over hurdles now he’s grabbed a win.

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