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6th December 2022

Ascot Chase Free Tips and Trends

The Grade One Betfair Ascot Chase is staged at Ascot raceourse every February and run over a distance of 2m5 ½f with 17 fences to tackle.

First run in 1995 the race has been won by some well-known names – including One Man, Monet’s Garden, Voy Por Ustedes, Kauto Star and Riverside Theatre, who landed the prize in 2011 & 2012, while Cue Card took the 2013 running before going on win the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

In more recent years, the likes of Silviniaco Conti (2016), Waiting Patiently (2018) and the top-rated chaser in the UK – Cyrname (2019) – have graced the hall-of-fame, while twelve months ago in 2021 the Jeremy Scott yard took the honours with Dashel Drasher winning at 4/1.

Here at TQ we look back at recent winners and gives you the key stats to take into the 2022 renewal – this year staged on 19th February.

 

Recent Ascot Chase Winners

2021 - DASHEL DRASHER (4/1)
2020 – RIDERS ONTHE STORM (7/2)
2019 – CYRNAME (3/1)
2018 – WAITING PATIENTLY (2/1 fav)
2017 – CUE CARD (4/9 fav)
2016 – SILVINIACO CONTI (2/1 fav)
2015 – BALDER SUCCES (4/1)
2014 – CAPTAIN CHIRS (8/11 fav)
2013 – CUE CARD (15/8 fav)
2012 – RIVERSIDE THEATRE (13/8 fav)
2011 – RIVERSIDE THEATRE (11/10 fav)
2010 – MONET’S GARDEN (11/2)
2009 – VOY POR USTEDES (6/5 fav)
2008 – KAUTO STAR (4/11 fav)
2007 – MONET’S GARDEN (11/10 fav)
2006 – OUR VIC (2/1 fav)
2005 - IT TAKES TIME (14/1)
2004 – HAND INN HAND (15/2)
2003 – TIUTCHEV (15/8 fav)

Ascot Chase Betting Trends

19/19 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
18/19– Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
17/19 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
16/19 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
16/19 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
15/19 – Officially rated 157 or higher
14/19 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
13/19 – Favourites placed
12/19 – Winning favourites
11/19 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
10/19 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
8/19 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
8/19 – Won their last race
7/19 – Unplaced in their latest race
7/19 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
5/19 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (1 winner, Cue Card) later that year
3/19 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/19 – Trained by Alan King
2/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
10 of the last 15 winners returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park
Waiting Patiently won this race in 2018
Dashel Drasher won the race in 2021
Riders On the Storm won the race in 2020

 

TQ VERDICT: If making the trip over, then the Joseph O’Brien-trained Fakir D’Oudairies, who is the top-rated in the field, will be the one to beat. He was a nice winner at Clonmel on soft ground in November and hasn’t been disgraced behind the classy Allaho the last twice. Mister Fisher was back in the winners’ enclosure last time out at Kempton and the form of that win has since been fracked with the runner-up Eldorado Allen winning the Denman Chase last weekend. But the worry for me is this will be his first run at Ascot, and it remains to be seen just how much the King George run and that last victory have taken out of him. Fanion D’Estruval can go well for the in-form Venetia Williams yard but with just one win from his last 9 races that would be the worry. So, the two I like here are SAINT CALVADOS and last year’s winner DASHEL DRASHER. The former was travelling really well in the King George last time out but just failed to see out the 3m trip. Therefore, back in distance here is a plus, while that run also came off a 323-day break and was his first after a wind operation. He’s still lightly-raced in recent seasons and his overall chase record is not too shabby (15 runs and 10 top three finishes (5 wins)). Dashel Drasher was a good winner over hurdles at Newbury at the end of December and was only just beaten at Lingfield last time back over fences. He was giving Two For Gold 6lbs that day but they are off level weights here so the form is expected to be reversed. But he’s also back to Ascot - a track he loves - with form figures here reading an impressive 1-1-1-3! Of the rest, we’ve also the 2018 winner of this race - Waiting Patiently - but at 11 he’s not getting any younger and, in fact, his win in his race four years ago was his last success. CD winner Lostintranslation hasn’t really fulfilled his potential for me, while the already mentioned Two For Gold looks a tad overpriced and it would be no shock if he outrun that price.

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