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19th January 2022

Boxing Day (26th Dec 2021) Tips and Trends: Kempton & Wetherby

A massive horse racing day on Boxing Day (Sunday, Dec 26th 2021), but the festive highlight, as racing resumes after a three-day break, is the King George VI Meeting at Kempton Park.

The King George VI Chase is the feature race of the day as punters will look to get their Christmas expenses paid for – a race in recent years we’ve seen horse racing greats like Kauto Star, Long Run, Best Mate, Kicking King, One Man and, more recently, Thistlecrack, Might Bite, landing the prize – while the Paul Nicholls-trained Clan Des Obeaux has landed two of the last three King George VI Chases, while Nicholls took the pot again 12 months ago - his twelfth win in the race - with Frodon - ridden by Bryony Frost.

Did you know - 15 of the last 19 King George winners were aged 8 or younger?

We take a look at each race on the Kempton card, plus the Rowland Meyrick Chase from Wetherby and highlight the main trends – hopefully this will help you narrow down the fields and point you in the direction of a few festive winners.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on TQ with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

Kempton Horse Racing Trends and Tips


12:45 –
Play Ladbrokes 5-A-Side ON Football Novices' Hurdle Race 2m RTV

14/14 – Had raced in the last 8 weeks
13/14 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/14 – Favourites placed in the top 3
11/14 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Winning distance 3 lengths or more
10/14 – Had won a NH Flat race before
8/14 – Winning favourites
7/14 – Won just once over hurdles before
5/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Third Time Lucki (11/10 fav) won the race 12 months ago

TQ BEST BET: BROOMFIELD BURG
TQ DANGER: PASO DOBLE

1.20 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Gbb Race) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-140) 2m 4 1/2f ITV

17/17 – Aged 7 or younger
16/17 – Had won between 0-1 times over fences in the UK
14/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/17 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/17 – Placed favourites (1 joint)
9/17 – Officially rated between 119 and 125
8/17 – Carried 11-5 or more
8/17 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
6/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/17 – Won by a French bred horse
5/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Raced at Kempton last time out
Killer Clown (9/2) won the race 12 months ago

TQ BEST BET: BOTHWELL BRIDGE
TQ DANGER: DANNY KIRWAN

1.55 – Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices´ Chase (In memory of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

17/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
17/18 – Placed in the top two last time out
14/18 – Won last time out
14/18 – French (7) or Irish (7) bred
13/18 – Had won at least 2 times over fences in the UK
12/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
12/18 – Aged 6 or younger
11/18 – Went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (no winners)
11/18 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/18 – Aged 6 years-old
10/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Had won (chase) over at least 3m before
8/18 – Raced at Newbury last time out
8/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Trained by David Pipe
2/18 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
1/18 – French trained
1/18 – Went onto run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (One winner - Coneygree 2015)
Shan Blue (7/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago

TQ BEST BET: BRAVEMANSGAME
TQ DANGER: AHOY SENOR

2.30 – Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

17/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
16/19 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
16/19 – Placed favourites
14/19 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Went onto run in the Champion Hurdle (Faughan (2015), Buveur D’Air (2018), Epatante (2019) winners)
11/19 – Won last time out
10/19 – Winning favourites
10/19 – Went onto finish in the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle that season
10/19 – Had run over hurdles at Kempton before
8/19 – Irish trained
8/19 – Ran in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Newcastle) last time out
7/19 – French bred
7/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/19 – Trained by Noel Meade
2/19 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/19 – Trained by Willie Mullins
Silver Streak (13/2) won the race in 2020
Epatante (2/1) won the race in 2019

TQ BEST BET: EPATANTE
TQ DANGER: NOT SO SLEEPY

3.05 – Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

17/19 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
17/19 – Had won a Grade One chase before
17/19 – French (13) or Irish bred (4)
16/19 – Finished in the top three last time out
16/19 – Placed favourites
16/19 – Had won over 3m or further (fences) before
15/19 – Officially rated 168 or higher
15/19 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Aged 8 or younger
12/19 – Had won a race over fences at Kempton before
11/19 – Winning favourites
11/19 – Won last time out
10/19 – Ran in the Betfair Chase (Haydock) last time out
10/19 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (12 times in all)
8/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/19 – Won by an Irish-based yard (only 3 in the last 35 runnings)
Paul Nicholls, Colin Tizzard and Nicky Henderson have trained ALL of the last 15 winners between them (10 Nicholls, 2 Tizzard, 3 Henderson)
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 5/1

TQ VERDICT: The Paul Nicholls yard have had a stranglehold on this race in recent time - winning the prize a staggering 12 times in total - including 12 months ago with FRODON. This popular front-runner is back for more this Boxing Day and will be looking to follow in the footsteps of his stablemate - Clan Des Obeaux - who won this race back-to-back in 2018 and 2019. Clan Des Obeaux was also a fair third in the race last year and both these past winners are sure to be popular and it will be a shock if they are not involved in the closing stages. Frodon also returned this season better than ever with a top win at Down Royal at the end of October. That was his 16th career win over fences (from 33) and has now won his last three here at Kempton. This track seems to play to his strengths and the likely good ground will also be a plus - he can go well again under Bryony Frost. Clan Des Obeaux will be looking to become the first horse since Long Run (2012) to win back his King George crown but does have just over 8 lengths to find with Frodon from last year’s form in this race. That said, he’s since bounced back to win the Betway Bowl at Aintree and the Punchestown Gold Cup - both back in April. He returns here off a break, but is sure to have been well-tuned up for this and being a two-time winner of the race is hard to ignore. Of the Irish challengers it remains to see who makes the trip over. Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Minella Indo would, of course, be a big player, if he does, but this would be his first run at the track and he was also 5 lengths behind Frodon last time at Down Royal. Surprisingly, trainer Willie Mullins has only won this race once - Florida Pearl (2001) he could send over Asteroin Forlonge. This 7 year-old certainly has the ability to go well, but his downfall is his jumping - he’s fallen twice over fences and again unseated last time at Punchestown when going well at the time. You just worry about that again here at Kempton, where they can often go a bit quicker on this flatter track. The other main player, for me, though is the Nicky Henderson runner - CHANTRY HOUSE. The Seven Barrows camp also have a fine record in this race - winning it three times since 2010. This 7 year-old has a bit to find on the ratings with the past winners mentioned already, but he’s got time on his side and looks likely to have more to come. He’s won 5 of his 6 starts over fences and was a nice winner of the Marsh Novices’ Chase at the Festival back in March. He returned this season with an easy win at Sandown and back in April also beat the useful Shan Blue easily in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase at Aintree. Yes, this will be his first run here at Kempton but there is no reason why it won’t suit. Jockey Nico de Boinville gets the leg up and he’s now won 5 times (from 6) on this exciting and improving chaser. Of the rest, Lostintranslation was pulled up in this race 12 months ago, but has bounced back to form this season with a nice win at Ascot last month and the reports coming out of the Tizzard yard are that he’s back to somewhere near his best after a wind op in the summer. Of the outsiders, he could be the most interesting, but I just worry that the track at Kempton doesn’t play to his strengths.

 

3.40 – Ladbrokes We Play Together Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (3yo+ 0-140) 2m5f RTV

14/14 – Won no more than 3 times (UK Hurdles)
13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
12/14 – Won between 0-2 times hurdles (UK)
10/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
10/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/14 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/14 – Ran 5 or less weeks ago
8/13 – Officially rated 120-129
8/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/13 – Unplaced favourites
6/13 – French bred
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Monte Cristo (25/1) won the race 12 months ago

TQ BEST BET: AN TAILLIUR
TQ DANGER: MARIE'S ROCK

Wetherby Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

2.10 – William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m45y ITV

12/13 – Aged 8 or younger
12/13 – Had won 3 or less times over fences (UK)
11/13 – Didn’t win last time out
11/13 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
11/13 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
11/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Had raced at Wetherby before
8/13 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
8/13 – Had won over 3m (chase) before
8/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Unplaced in their last race
4/13 – Raced at either Haydock (2) or Aintree (2) last time out
3/13– Winning favourites
Canelo won the race in 2020
Top Ville Ben won the race in 2019
Lake View Lad won the race in 2018

TQ BEST BET: GOOD BOY BOBBY
TQ DANGER: WINDSOR AVENUE

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