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21st January 2021

Chester May Meeting Free Tips and Trends – DAY THREE (Fri 10th May 19)

As we head into the last day of the Chester May Meeting we've the three-day highlight with the Chester Cup now being run on the Friday. Plenty of key trends to take in ahead the big race - like, did you know 16 of the last 167Chester Cup winners were aged 7 or younger, while 12 of the last 17 came from stalls 7 or lower and carried 9-2 or less!

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at TRAINERS-QUOTES with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – Good luck!



1.50 –
Liverpool Gin Earl Grosvenor Handicap Cl2 7f122y ITV

14/17 - Had won over this trip (7 1/2f) before
15/17 - Didn’t win their last race
13/17 - Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
14/17 - Had a previous run that season
14/17 - Finished unplaced last time out
13/17 - Carried 8-10 or more
13/17 - Had run before at Chester
12/17 - Favourites placed
10/17 - Came from stall 5 or higher
7/17 - Won by a 4 year-old
8/17 - Horses placed from stall 1
5/17 - Won by the favourite
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/17 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
3/17 – Winning horses from stall 1
Baraweez won the race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: Another Batt won on this card last season, but draw 13 is going to make life hard. We’ve also got last year’s winner of this race – BARAWEEZ (e/w) – running again and in stall 3 he’s been given every chance. Yes, at 9 years-old he’s not getting any younger but is only 2lbs higher than last year. Softer ground is fine and a recent run at Thirsk wold have blown away the cobwebs. With 13 of the last 17 winners aged 4 or 5 then it might pay to also have a few from this age group on your side. Horses from stall 1 have a good record of getting placed – 47% in the last 17 years – so the 4 year-old Sha La La La Lee is one to note from the Tom Dascombe yard that love having winners here. Dascombe also has Dragons Tail, Calder Prince and Arcanada. Trainer Richard Fahey is another yard to note in this race – they’ve Brian The Snail and Gabrial The Saint, who both run in the Dr Marwan Koukash colours that we often see in the winners’ enclosure here at Chester. However, the other pick is the Richard Hughes runner – PTARMIGAN RIDGE (e/w). This 5 year-old has a decent draw in 2 and ran well in soft ground last time at Haydock (2nd) on his return run. With the expected improvement and also being a proven course winner then he looks to have a lot in his favour.

2.25 – Homeserve Huxley Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f75y ITV

16/17 – Aged either a 4 or 5 year-old
14/17 – Had won over 1m2f before
13/17 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd in this race
13/17 – Had a previous race that season
12/17 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Winners from between stalls 1-4
9/17 – Winning favourites
9/17 – Failed to win their previous race
6/17 – Returned 6/4 or shorter in the betting
5/17 – Ran in the John Porter at Newbury before winning this
5/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
5/17 – Had raced at Chester before
5/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Forest Ranger won the race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: FOREST RANGER took this prize last year and I think he’s got a leading chance of following up. This 5 year-old was a solid runner-up at HQ last time out but should now be spot-on for this after two runs this term. He acts on most ground and handled the tight turns well in this race last year. Of the rest, last year’s Lincoln winner – Addeybb – is the top-rated in the field so enters the mix too – he’ll love the soft ground though but – for me – still has a bit to prove over this 1m2f trip. CD winner Chief Ironside is another that is proven at the track, but does have a bit to find on the ratings on these terms, so Matterhorn might give the selection most to think about. This Mark Johnston runner has won four of his last five and is rated just 2lbs off Addeybb and 3lbs higher than Forest Ranger. He was an impressive winner of the Easter Classic at Lingfield last month and has now won 7 of his last 9 starts. If handling the softer ground, he’d be the one to beat, but with that unknown and running at the track for the first time too, I’d prefer to go with last year’s winner.

3.00 – Boodles Diamond Handicap Cl2 1m2 1/2f ITV

10/10 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
10/10 – Won at least twice before
9/10 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
9/10 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
8/10 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
8/10 – Rated between 90-95
8/10 – Placed favourites
8/10 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute

TQ VERDICT: With 80% of the last 10 winners rated between 90-95 then we are actually only left with five runners – Sputnik Planum, Gossip Column, Dukhan, Third Time Lucky and Genetics. 80% of recent winners also came from stalls 6 or lower, so of the five mentioned GENETICS & GOSSIP COLUMN fit the bill. The first-named Andrew Balding runner has been handed draw 4 and will have Graham Lee riding. Yes, the softer ground is a bit of an unknown, with his best runs coming on quicker, but we know he stays further than this 1m2f trip so that will help in conditions. Gossip Column, from the Ian Williams yard, is another for Dr Marwan Koukash so is sure to have been readied for this and will be a lot fitter for a recent run at Donny. He’s a CD winner at the track too and has actually won his last two races here on the Roodee. The others drawn in 6 or lower are Aquarium (1), Frankuus (2), Restorer (3) & Epaulement (5)

3.35 –
Sportpesa Chester Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f147y ITV

16/17 – Aged 7 years-old or younger
15/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
13/17 – Officially rated between 93-99
13/17 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-olds
12/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
12/17 – Won from stall 7 or lower
11/17 – Carried 9-2 or less
11/17 – Had raced within the last 2 months
11/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Had won previously over at least 2m on the flat
9/17 – Favourites were unplaced
8/17 – Irish bred
4/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/17 – Won by owner Dr Marwan Koukash
3/17 – Had won at the track before
3/17 – Ran at Aintree over hurdles last time out
2/17 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/17 – Trained by Ian Williams
2/17 – Won by the favourite
2/17 – Won their previous race
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 12/1

Key Chester Cup Stats

The race has seen repeat winners three times since 1997
Since 1975 we’ve only seen 4 winning favourites
The Hills yard took the race in 1980, 1999, 2001 and 2009
Since 1975 all winners have been aged 8 or younger
Since 1975 there have only been three winners aged 8 years-old
Since 1981 only 7 winners have carried more than 9-2 to victory
4 of the last 9 winners came from NH yards
3 of the last 7 winners returned 10/1
Dr Marwan Koukash has owned 4 of the last 11 winners


TQ VERDICT: We could see the last two winners of the Chester Cup lining up again as the 2018 hero Magic Circle and 2017 winner Montaly hold entries. Both, of course, command respect but last year’s winner – Magic Circle – will be running off an 18lb higher mark. Connections are offsetting some of that with Cieren Fallon’s claim and this 7 year-old is a much better horse now too anyway. He also held an entry in Thursday’s Ormonde Stakes so we’ll have to see if he comes here or not. Fun Mac was runner-up last and must have a chance off a 8lb lower mark, while Who Dares Wins was third 12 months ago and gets in here off exactly the same rating. Time To Study is another that ran in the race last year (5th) and he’s now with Ian Williams that often do well in this race, plus he’s rated 8lbs lower this time. Draw 13 is not ideal, but his chance can’t be ignored. Willie Mullins sends over Low Sun and with Ryan Moore riding he’ll be popular, but draw 17 makes life hard, while they also have Whiskey Sour (stall 7), who can’t be discounted either. However, 5, 6 and 7 year-olds have done best over the years in this race, while 13 of the last 17 winners were rated between 93 and 99. With that in-mind two other Ian Williams runners in SPEEDO BOY (e/w) and SHABEEB (e/w) stand out. Speedo Boy is drawn 6 too so will have a good starting point and did well over hurdles this season. A recent spell in Dubai didn’t go to plan but he’s acted well in soft ground in the past and has been freshened up with 3 months off – he’s gone well fresh in the past. Shabeeb is yet another Koukash runner as he looks for his fifth win in this race. Formerly with Roger Varian this 6 year-old had some good handicap form over the middle distances for the last few seasons and if getting the longer distance looks very interesting. Paul Hangan has been booked to ride too and he gets in here with just 8-12 in weight. Of the rest, Busy Street and Watersmeet tick a lot of the main trends too and the last-named was also 9th in the race last year and gets in 3lbs lower. Of the others, the Mark Johnston-trained Austrian School looks set to go off as one of the fancied ones. He’s a consistent 4 year-old that is drawn well in 5 and should be bang-there being a course winner too. However, he’s certainly no value and has won just 1 of his last 10 races. CLEONTE is the other one to have on side though. He represents the Andrew Balding yard that won this race in 2017 and caught the eye when staying on last time out in a Group Three at Ascot. That came off a 200 day break too so will be better for it and was staying on well over that 2m trip to suggest the longer trip here will suit.

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