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2nd December 2022

Coral Trophy Chase Trends

The Coral Trophy Chase was first run back in 1988 and was staged as the Racing Post Chase until 2011 and then the Racing Plus Chase in 2012 & 2013. Leading bookmaker – BetBright – took over the sponsorship from 2014 till 2017.

In 2020 we had another new backer of the race with leading bookmaker Betway taking over, while in 2021 the race was run as the Close Brothers Chase.

Once again, the baton has been handed over to another new sponsor as leading bookmaker - Coral - begin their association with the race.

This Grade Three handicap is run over a distance of 3m at Kempton Park racecourse the contest is often described as another Grand National trial, with two horses – Rhyme ‘n’ Reason and Rough Quest – landing both races in the same season, while it could pay to know that both those horses also contested the Cheltenham Gold Cup that season.

Did You Know - 15 of the last 18 winners were aged 9 or younger and finished in the top 5 last time out.

Here at TQ, we take a look back at recent winners of the Coral Trophy Chase and gives you the key stats to look out for ahead of the 2022 renewal – this year run on Saturday February 26th.

 

Recent Coral Trophy Chase Winners

2021 - CLONDAW CASTLE (17/2)
2020 – MISTER MALARKY (9/1)
2019 - WALT (14/1)
2018 – MASTER DEE (8/1)
2017 – PILGRIMS BAY (25/1)
2016 – THEATRE GUIDE (6/1)
2015 – ROCKY CREEK (8/1)
2014 – BALLY LEGEND (28/1)
2013 – OPENING BATSMAN (12/1)
2012 – NACARAT (9/2)
2011 – QUINZ (8/1)
2010 – RAZOR ROYALE (11/1)
2009 – NACARAT (10/1)
2008 – GUNGADU (4/1 fav)
2007 – SIMON (11/2)
2006 – INNOX (8/1)
2005 – FARMER JACK (5/1)
2004 – MARLBOROUGH (8/1)
2003 – LA LANDIERE (5/1 jfav)

Coral Trophy Chase Betting Trends

16/19 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
16/19 – Aged 9 or younger
16/19 – Rated 139 or higher
14/19 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
13/19 – Won a Class 2 chase or better before
13/19 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/19 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
12/19 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/19 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
11/19 – Rated between 139 and 150
10/19 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/19 – Carried 11-5 or more
8/19 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Aged 8 years-old
5/19 – French bred
4/19 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
4/19 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/19 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
3/19 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
3/19 – Trained by Tom George
2/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/19 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/19 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 5)
2/19 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (won 2 of the last 5)
2/19 – Trained by Philip Hobbs (won it 4 times in all)
2/19 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park

TQ VERDICT: With 16 of the last 19 winners aged 9 or younger this is not good news for the 10 year-old Lalor. We’ve also seen the same about of winners in the last 19 runnings placed in the top five in their last race - so this would be a plus for most of the runners barring Zanza, Enrilo, Lalor and Kitty’s Light. 13 of the last 19 winners also carried 10st 13lbs or more, so this might be seen as a negative for Our Power, Five Star Getaway, Galahad Quest, Zhiguli, Beakstown and Cap Du Nord. So, taking those trends into account that leaves us with four of the top seven on the card - Good Boy Bobby, The Big Breakaway, Phoenix Way and Annsam. Of that quartet, the two I like are ANNSAM and THE BIG BREAKAWAY. The first-named beat Phoenix Way by 4 1/24 lengths at Ascot last time out and a 6lb rise for that looks fair. Yes, there is small swing in the racing weights this time, but it’s only 3lbs.         I also feel that Annsam, who has only had 5 career runs, will have more improvement to come, especially over this 3m trip. The Big Breakaway represents the Colin Tizzard yard that have won this race twice in the last five years. He’s not really kicked on as many thought, but from seven runs over fences has only been out of the top three twice. Just the one win but three runs back he was in the process of running well behind Bravemansgame at Newbury when falling late on. Yes, he would have probably finished second that day, but with the winner franking the form many times since it was still a top run. He’s since had a wind op and returned from that last time to run a close third. The cheekpieces are also on for the first time here, which is another reason to suggest he could find a bit more from somewhere.

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