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30th September 2020

Greatwood Gold Cup Trends and Free Tips

This Saturday’s Grade 3 Greatwood Gold Cup is a Handicap Chase staged at Newbury racecourse and is always a hotly-contested event. The race is run over a distance of 2m4f and is currently sponsored by William Hill, who are also supporting the Greatwood Veterans. It was first run in 2004 and since then has been dominated by top UK National Hunt trainer Paul Nicholls – who has won the race a staggering nine times, including 12 months ago with San Benedeto, therefore, anything he runs should be respected.

We look back at recent winners of the race and give you all the key trends to take into the 2020 renewal – this year run on Saturday 29th February – for example, did you know 14 of the last 16 winners were aged 8 or younger?

 

Recent Greatwood Gold Cup Chase Winners

2019 – SAN BENEDETO  (11/1)
2018 – Abandoned
2017 – THOMAS CRAPPER (8/1)
2016 – SAMETEGAL (7/1)
2015 – SOUND INVESTMENT (7/2 fav)
2014 – SHANGANI (3/1 fav)
2013 – PACHA Du POLDER (18/1)
2012 – AERIAL (10/3 fav)
2011 – FINE PARCHMENT (12/1)
2010 – BIG FELLA THANKS (8/1)
2009 – NEW LITTLE BRIC (14/1)
2008 – NATAL (3/1 jfav)
2007 – MADISON du BERLAIS (12/1)
2006 – HORUS (22/1) dead-heat
2006 – CORNISH SET (5/1 fav) dead-heat
2005 – SUPREME PRINCE (7/1)
2004 – ISIO (11/2)

Greatwood Gold Cup Chase Betting Trends

15/16 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
14/16 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
13/16 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
13/16 – Won over this trip previously
11/16 – Officially rated 139 or higher
11/16 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
8/16 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
8/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/16 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/16 – Favourites  to win (1 joint)
3/16 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
2/16 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/16 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

 

TQ VERDICT: This is a race the Paul Nicholls team love to win. They’ve bagged the top prize here a staggering 9 times in the last 16 years so their runners – SECRET INVESTOR, MONT DES AVALOIRS and last year’s winner of the race SAN BENEDETO have to be respected. Secret Investor and Mont Des Avaloirs both head here off the back of good seconds – Secret Investor’s runner-up finish to Native River in the Denman Chase was particularly eye-catching. However, I’m going to stick with the current champ in this race – SAN BENEDETO (e/w). He beat another runner – Gala Ball – by 2 ¼ lengths last year and is only rated 3lbs higher. But it’s interesting that Nicholls is offsetting that by putting up 5lb claimer Bryan Carver to ride, so the horse is actually 2lbs better off than 12 months ago. He’s also been kept fresh for this with 3 months off, with this race looking to have been a clear target for him. Of the rest, Bennys King and Tiquer are proven course winners so command respect based on that, while Clondaw Castle was a nice winner at Warwick last time and should go well again. But the other of interest is the bottom weight – ENRICHISSANT (e/w). This 6 year-old caught my eye when winning well at Huntingdon a week ago and gets in here with just 10-0. Yes. This is a big jump up in grade and he’s been raised a massive 13lbs for that last win, but he jumped and travelled well and at just 6 years-old looks a horse on the up with more to come.

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