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19th July 2024

Irish 2000 Guineas Trends and Free Tips

Staged at The Curragh racecourse the Irish 2,000 Guineas is a Group One class race for 3 year-olds only. Run over 1m the contest normally takes place each year in May and was first run in 1921.

Horses that contested the English 2,000 Guineas often go onto run in this race, while winners of the Irish 2,000 Guineas tend to take in the St James’s Palace Stakes, at Royal Ascot.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won four of the last nine runnings, while in total, O’Brien has won the race a staggering 11 times.

We take a look back at past winners, plus have all the key trends ahead of the 2021 Irish 2,000 Guineas – this year run on Saturday 22nd May 2021 – did you know that 17 of the last 19 winners had raced in the last 3 weeks, while 14 of the last 19 ran at Newmarket last time out?

Recent Irish 2,000 Guineas Winners

2020 – SISKIN (2/1 fav)
2019 – PHOENIX OF SPAIN (16/1)
2018 – ROMANISED (25/1)
2017 – CHURCHILL (4/9 fav)
2016 – AWTAAD (9/2)
2015 – GLENEAGLES (2/5 fav)
2014 – KINGMAN (4/5 fav)
2013 – MAGICIAN (10/3)
2012 – POWER (5/1)
2011 – RODERIC O’CONNOR (7/2)
2010 – CANFORD CLIFFS (9/4 fav)
2009 – MASTERCRAFTSMAN (6/4 fav)
2007 – COCKNEY REBEL (6/4 fav)
2006 – ARAAFA (12/1)
2005 – DUBAWI (7/4 jfav)
2004 – BACHELOR (12/1)
2003 – INDIAN HAVEN (8/1)
2002 – ROCK OF GIBRALTAR (4/7 fav)


Irish Guineas Betting Trends and Stats

17/19 – Had run within the last 3 weeks
15/19 – Had won over either 7f or 1m before
15/19 – Favourites that finished in the top two
15/19 – Had won between 1-4 times before
14/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
14/19 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/19 – Irish bred
13/19 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
12/19 – Had run at the Curragh before
11/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/19 – Had won a Group 1 race before
9/19 – Winning favourites
8/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (11 wins in total)
8/19 – Unplaced last time out
8/19 – Trained by a UK-based stable
8/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Won the 2,000 Guineas (Newmarket) that season
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 11/2
Rock of Gibraltar (2002), Cockney Rebel (2007), Henrythenavigator (2008), Gleneagles (2015) & Churchill (2017) all did the English/Irish 2,000 Guineas double


TQ VERDICT: A more open renewal of the Irish 2000 Guineas this season, in a race the powerful Aidan O’Brien camp will be going for their twelfth win! However, the Ballydoyle outfit are now three years without success in the race, with the last coming in 2017 with Churchill. Like most years, they are mob-handed again with three runners – Wembley, Van Gogh and Battleground – and the trio all look to have a chance. They also all ran in the English 2000 Guineas last time out and it was Van Gogh who came out best in 8th, with Wembley in 11th and Battleground in 13th. You feel that all three are much better than those showings and the much quicker ground that day was probably a big reason why they all underperformed. Back on ground with more give we can expect improved runs from the three, but the fact jockey Ryan Moore sticks with WEMBLEY could be significant. This 3 year-old wasn’t given a hard time once his chance was lost on the quick ground at Newmarket last time, but prior to that had run in the top three in all six starts, including a close second in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes last season. The softer ground here is a huge plus and even though his breeding suggests he’ll want further in time that stamina in his pedigree will be an asset in testing conditions – he’s taken to ‘hit the back of the net’ for trainer Aidan O’Brien. We also get a chance to see the winner of the English 2000 Guineas again – Poetic Flare – but he ran only last week too in the French Guineas and was only 6th. Therefore, he’s got a bit to prove for me and this race coming just six days later might not be ideal for this young horse. Course winner – Lucky Vega – is another big player having been a close third in the English 2000 Guineas last time but I just feel the heavy ground will test his stamina to the max and breeding suggests this 1m trip is probably around his max – we’ll see. The English challenge is thin on the ground, but is headed by the Charlie Appleby-trained La Barrosa, who was last seen running a close second in the Craven Stakes at HQ. But his only try on heavy ground saw him get tired quickly, so conditions would certainly be a worry for him too. The Hugo Palmer runner – The Rosstafarian is the only other UK-trained runner. The forgotten horse could be the other Jim Bolger runner – MAC SWINEY (e/w) – who probably need the run last time out in the G1 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown. Back in trip will suit and he’s a winner on heavy ground, when landing the G1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster last season. Add in that he’s also a prove course winner here at the Curragh, then he could be the each-way value in the race.