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5th August 2021

Nell Gwyn Stakes Free Tips and Trends

The Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes is run on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course in April over a distance of 7f. The Group 3 contest is for 3 year-old fillies only and was first run in 1961 – the race is also often seen as a trial race for the 1,000 Guineas run the following month at the same track, but the last horse to win both races was Speciosa in 2006.

Did you know? 16 of the last 17 winners were having their first runs of the season

Here at TQ we look back at recent winners and gives you all the key stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Wednesday 14th April.

Recent Nell Gywn Stakes Winners

2020 – No Race
2019 – QABALA (10/3 fav)
2018 – SOLILOQUY (4/1)
2017 – DABAN (12/1)
2016 – NATHRA (5/4 fav)
2015 – OSAILA (4/1)
2014 – SANDIVA (7/2 fav)
2013 – HOT SNAP (10/1)
2012 – ESENTEPE (28/1)
2011 – BAREFOOT LADY (14/1)
2010 – MUSIC SHOW (6/1)
2009 – FANTASIA (4/5 fav)
2008 – INFALLIBLE (7/2 fav)
2007 – SCARLET RUNNER (15/2)
2006 – SPECIOSA (9/1)
2005 – KAREN’S CAPER (15/2)
2004 – SILCA’S GIFT (25/1)
2003 – KHULOOD (15/8 fav)

 

Nell Gywn Stakes Betting Trends and Stats

16/17 – Were having their first run of the season
14/17 – Had won between 1-2 times previously
14/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/17 – Had only won over 6f or 7f before
12/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/17 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley)
9/17 – Had won over 7f before
9/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Had won a Listed or Group race in the past
7/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (won it 7 times in all)
4/17 – Trained by John Gosden
2/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/17 – Trained by Mick Channon
1/17 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 8/1

TQ VERDICT: A big day for trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam here as she runs her unbeaten filly – Saffron Beach – here. This 3 year-old has caught the eye on winning both her races here at the track over this trip so that proven experience is a bonus. She’s already a winner at this G3 level too and won’t mind the ground. Sacred will find this easier than the Group One Cheveley Park Stakes he ran in last time here, but is up in trip to 7f for the first time, so that is the unknown, while with five career runs, she’s one of the more exposed in the field. Love Is You could be anything after winning both her starts to date, but both have been with a bit of cut in the ground too. The John Gosden yard have a good record in the race too, so of the bigger priced runners, their STAR OF EMARAATY (e/w) and TAWAHUB (e/w) enter the mix and the yard are no strangers to winning this race with a bigger-priced runner. The former is having her first run for the yard after coming from the Kevin Ryan camp. She didn’t seem to handle the softer ground last time, so the return to a quicker surface will help, as will the drop back in trip. Tawahub got off the mark at the second try at Chelmsford in October, but the fact the yard are upping her in grade to this level suggests they think she’s okay. But the main pick is the Godolphin runner – DIVINE LIGHT. This 3 year-old has proven CD form when winning her in October on debut and with another winter on her back should be a lot more forward and stronger this season. She’s entered in the 1,000 Guineas too and the yard, who boast a decent 30% record with their 3 year-olds at the track, won this in 2018 too.

 

 

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