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28th November 2020

2020 November Handicap Trends and Tips

Staged at Doncaster racecourse, the November Handicap is run over a distance of 1m4f, and, as the race title suggests, is run every November. The event is always run on the last day of Britain’s flat turf racing season – this year run on Saturday 7th November 2020

Being first run in 1876 the contest was staged in the early days at Manchester and Pontefract racecourses - it was then transferred to Doncaster in 1964.

The race is always a very competitive betting heat, and one the bookmakers have loved in recent years with the favourites having a very poor recent record.

In terms of stables to note - Trainer John Gosden has been the man to follow – he’s landed the prize six times since 1991 and most recently in 2018 as the race was abandoned in 2019 due to a waterlogged track.

Looking at the recent stats horses drawn in stall 9 or higher have a great recent record, but be wary of the market leaders – we’ve only had two winning favourites since 1995!

We look at recent winners of the November Handicap, plus highlights some key trends and stats based to apply to the 2020 running.

November Handicap Recent Winners

2019 – Abandoned
2018 – Royal Line (9/1)
2017 – Saunter (6/1)
2016 – Prize Money (4/1)
2015 – Litigant (10/1)
2014 – Open Eagle (15/2 fav)
2013 – Conduct (8/1)
2012 – Art Scholar (20/1)
2011 – Zuider Zee (8/1)
2010 – Times Up (14/1)
2009 – Charm School (17/2)
2008 – Tropical Strait (20/1)
2007 – Malt or Mash (5/1)
2006 – Group Captain (10/1)
2005 – Come On Jonny (14/1)
2004 – Carte Diamond (12/1)
2003 – Turbo (25/1)

 

November Handicap Trends

13/16 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
13/16 – Winners that came from draw 9 or higher
13/16 – Favourites that were unplaced
12/16 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
12/16 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
12/16 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
11/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
11/16 – Placed last time out
11/16 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/16 – Won carrying 8-13 or less in weight
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 -Trained by John Gosden (won it 6 times in all)
2/16 – Ridden by jockey Martin Dwyer
1/16 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Just 1 winning favourite since 1995

TQ VERDICT: As always, a very competitive renewal of this race with 23 runners. Trainer John Gosden has a top record in the race, but he’s no entries this time. With 10 of the last 16 winners carrying 8st 13lbs or less then this is a fair trend to note, while 11 of the last 16 winners were also aged 3 or 4 years-old. The 7 year-old – Euchen Glen – falls down on those last two trends, but it’s hard to ignore his recent return to form – winning two G3 contests. He’s back into a handicap here but has a result has a lot of weight to give away. On a plus, he’s clearly in the form of his life and is a proven CD winner that is loving the soft ground at the moment. It’s hard to fault his chance, but I just feel the weight concession might just get the better of him in the here. Kingbrook is at the other end of the weights with only 8-7 to carry and this Ian Williams runner bounced back to form last time at Newmarket with a nice win – he’s up 6lbs here though so more is needed, but it’s worth noting the yard won this race in 2017. With 13 of the last 16 winners being drawn 9 or higher then this might be seen as a negative got those drawn low – Raymond Tusk, Ben Lilly, Dash Of Spice, Aasheq, Indianapolis, Surrey Pride, Bollin Joan, Everything For You and Now Children. So, the two I like here are SAM COOKE and TULIP FIELDS (e/w). The former has been popular in the betting all week and it’s easy to see why. This Ralph Beckett runner is unexposed with just 6 career runs and looked to be back to form last time with a close second at Ascot in a decent handicap. The softer ground is fine and he’s only up 3lbs for that. The other pick – Tulip Fields – ran well in a Listed race at Lingfield last time out (5th of 11) and prior to that beat another of today’s runners – Dash Of Spice – by an easy 2 lengths here over this course and distance. He’s rated only 4lbs higher than that win and we know this 3 year-old, who gets in here with just 8st 4lbs - handles the ground and the track.

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