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8th December 2021

Saturday Racing Tips and Trends: 27th November 2021

Another huge Saturday ahead with the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase – plus the Fighting Fifth Hurdle as the main contests at Newbury and Newcastle – As always, here at TQ, we've got all the ITV TV trends to help you find the best winning profile of past winners of the main races.

Did you know? 17 of the last 19 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase winners were aged 8 or younger

 Let's get cracking!

 

Newbury Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.15 - Sir Peter O´Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase Cl3 2m6f93y ITV3

15/15 – Aged 9 or younger
14/15 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
12/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
11/15 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
10/15 – Aged 7 or younger
9/15 – Carried 11-5 or more in weight
9/15 – Raced at Wincanton (4), Cheltenham (3) or Bangor (2) last time out
9/15 – Officially rated between 126-130
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
8/15 – Irish bred
6/15 – Had raced at Newbury over fences before
6/15 – French bred
5/15 – Placed favourites
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Winning favourites
Kapcorse (12/1) won this race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

TQ VERDICT: It’s good to see Henry De Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore over here for the big weekend meetings - they team-up here with Somptueux and is sure to be popular. The first one of interest though is KAUTO THE KING, who continues to improve - having won four of his last five and is only up another 4lbs in the ratings. He won well at Wincanton last time carrying 11-10 in weight, but in this better race onl has 10-12 to carry and his normal jockey, Harry Kimber takes off another 7lbs. Court Master and Kalooki are two CD winners in the field to respect, but so is the Nicholls-trained KAPCORSE, who was actually won this race in 2018. This 8 year-old has clearly had some issues as he’s not been seen since running in this race, but is only rated 3lbs higher than when winning this race before and still has time on his side. Nicholls, who has won this race 3 times in the last 15 years, also has Grand Sancy in here, but with jockey Harry Cobden preferring Kapcorse, then he’s the pick - Harry Skelton rides the other. Dame De Compagnie is the topweight and on her best form is another to note but needs to bounce back from some poor runs. Of the rest, Topofthecotswolds, Killer Clown, and Espoir De Teillee would have claims.

 

1.50 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV3

5 previous runnings
All of the last 5 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
4 of the last 5 winners returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
4 of the last 5 winners carried 11st 3lbs or more in weight
3 of the last 5 winners were aged 6 years-old
2 of the last 5 winners trained by Nicky Henderson
Trainers Dan Skelton, Paul Nicholls and Philip Hobbs have won this race in the past
2 winning favourites (joint) in the last 5 years

TQ VERDICT: The Dan Skelton yard won this race 12 months ago and try to add to that this year with Ch’tibello, who is back after almost a year out. He’s down in grade here and certainly looks well-handicapped on his best form but isn’t getting any younger at 10 and his last win came in 2019. Glory Of Fortune ran well in the Greatwood Hurdle (6th) but is up in trip here and this would be the furthest he’s gone. The Nicholls yard won this in 2017 and have a leading chance again with Calva D’Auge, who is the only CD winner in the field. He’s won four of his last 5 races and should be in the mix off just a 2lb higher mark than last time. Earlofthecotswolds is another to note who won well last time and with the Henderson yard having won this race twice in the last 5 years, their pair Lecale’s Article and Fred have to be on your radar. But the picks are MASTERS LEGACY, from the Hobbs yard that won this in 2016 and BLACK MISCHIEF, for trainer Harry Fry. The former stayed on well over 2m at Chepstow to win last time, so this step up to 2m4f looks a good move. He’s up only 2lbs and having won 50% of his 6 runs over hurdles knows how to get his head in front. Black Mischief was an easy winner at Newton Abbot back in July and despite not been out since is a horse that goes well fresh. He’s up 8lbs for that, so more to come but we know he stays as that win came over 2m5f and jockey Lorcan Murtagh continues in the saddle to claim a handy 3lbs.

 

2.25 Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Intermediate Handicap (Listed Race) (A Limited Handicap) Cl1 2m69y ITV3

14/15 – Aged 6 or younger
14/15 – Won over 2m (hurdles) before
13/15 – Had at least 4 runs over hurdles before
13/15 – Won just 1-2 times in the past (hurdles)
12/15 – Irish, French or German bred
11/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
8/15 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
8/15 – Had raced at Newbury before
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
7/15 – Aged 5 years-old
6/15 – Officially rated between 126-134
6/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
5/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Raced at Aintree last time out
2/15 – Won last time out
9 of the last 14 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old
Floressa (10/1) won the race in 2020

TQ VERDICT: Just the four runners here, but they all won last time out and head here in good form. Soaring Glory and Gowel Road are two proven CD winners to note, and the pair returned to action this season with wins at Ascot and Cheltenham. However, Gowel Road is up 7lbs here and Soaring Glory another 6lbs. Jonjo’s Soaring Glory also has a big weight of 11-10 to carry this time and even though he showed last time he’s more than capable of doing that, he’s got to give a fair bit away to CAPTAIN MORGS, who only has 10-6 on his back. Trained by Henderson, who’s won this race 6 times in the last 15 years, this 5 year-old seemed beaten at Sandown last time out, but rallied well to get back up on the line - winning going away and with a bit up his sleeve in the end. This extra furlong will, therefore, suit and even though he’s up 6lbs more here, with a featherweight on his back he looks dangerous. Onemorefortheroad makes up the four runners and is certainly no back number either. This Neil King runner has won four of his last five and made all to win impressively at Huntingdon last time out. He’s another with a light weight here (10-8) and will certainly give it a good go from the front.

 

3.00 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) ITV 3m2f110y ITV3

17/19 – Aged 8 or younger
17/19 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
17/19 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
16/19 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
13/19 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/19 – Had run at Newbury before (9 had won over fences there)
13/19 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
13/19 – Had a previous run that season
12/19 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
12/19 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
12/19 – Rated between 140 and 151
11/19 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
10/19 – Won last time out
9/19 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (7) last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 9)
2/19 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/19 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 5)
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 9/1
11 of the last 16 winners carried 11st 1lb or more
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (30 runnings) there have been 14 winners (47%) aged 7 years-old

TQ VERDICT: Cloth Cap took the honours 12 months ago and is back for more this year - he’ll be looking to be the first back-to-back winner of the race since the mighty Arkle (1964/65). He’s reported to be in fine fettle but last year he only had 10st to carry and this time has 11-8 and is rated 18lbs higher. There’s a decent Irish presence this year too with De Bromhead sending over Eklat De Rire, who has won three of his last four and looks a big player. The concern with him would be if the ground will be softer enough for him - all his best runs have been on heavy. Willie Mullins has three too - he won this race in 2017 too. He’s got the topweight - Brahma Bull, plus Annamix and Ontheropes. All three have big chances, with the last two named also having claiming jockeys on to help. The Tizzard camp have won this race twice in the last five years and are mob-handed again with Mister Malarky, Copperhead (pulled up in the race last season) and FIDDLERONTHEROOF - of that trio, the last-named looks the most reliable. This 7 year-old is yet to finish out of the first three from his 8 runs over fences and returned to action with a top win at Carlisle last time month. He’s only 2lbs higher and is well worth another try upped in trip. Kitty’s Light, who was runner-up in the Charlie Hall Chase this season, is a useful stayer in the making, but I’m pretty sure no 5 year-old has won this race, although I’m not certain many have tried. Enrillo has been popular for the Nicholls yard this week too - he’s a course that was sent off favourite (3rd) for the Bet365 Gold Cup last April. I’d just be worried that he’s only had five runs over fences, for a race as competitive as this. Remastered and Brave Eagle have to be noted too, but the other picks are POTTERMAN (e/w). This Alan King runner returned to be a good second in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase last time out. He gets in here off the same mark and was staying on well that day to suggest this longer trip will suit - the King yard also took this in 2015.

3.35- Watch Racing Free Online At Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (for the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) Cl2 2m1f ITV3

17/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
11/19 – Officially rated between 126-136
11/19 – French bred
11/19 – Winning distance – 2 1/4 lengths or more
10/19 – Had won a UK chase race over 2m1f
10/19 – Had won between 2-5 chase races in the UK
10/19 – Placed in their last race
10/19 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
8/19 – Unplaced favourites
7/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/19 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/19 – Won a chase race at Newbury before
2/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/19 – Trained by Venetia Williams
11 of the last 15 winners carried between 10-8 and 11-3
Zanza (5/2) won the race in 2020
Magic Saint (3/1 fav) won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: With 11 of the last 15 winners carrying between 10-8 and 11-3, then this is a good place to start - the ones that fit the bill here are Numitor, Star Max, Grey Diamond, Ashutor, Frero Banbou, Éclair D’Ainay and Sao. Just below that lot in the weights though is the Paul Nicholls-trained 4 year-old - IL RIDOTO - who only has 1-4 to carry and could be a handicap blot here. Jockey Harry Cobden does the weight and he’ll be much fitter for a recent third (or 4) at Newton About on his return last month. He’s had a nice break since and that was the horses first run for 191 days and first for the yard so will be much sharper this time. The class acts in the race are Sully D’Oc AA, Gumball, King D’Argent and Getaway Trump, but they’ve all got bit burdens to carry. The other selection though is going to be the Venetia Williams runner - FRERO BANBOU (e/w). The yard is in good order and this 6 year-old will be a lot fitter for a recent run (4th) at Ascot. He’s won 3 times (7 races) over fences and has also been dropped 2lbs from last time - everything points to a much better run than last time. Of the rest, Numitor can also go well.

Newcastle Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.30 - Betfair Daily Rewards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-135) 2m7 1/2f ITV3

10/10 - Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 - Aged between 5-7 years-old
9/10 - Ran in the last 5 weeks
8/10 - Carried 10st 8lbs or more
8/10 - Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/10 - Placed favourites
6/10 - Winning favourites
6/10 - Irish bred
5/10 - Had run at the track before
3/10 - Trained by Sue Smith
2/10 - Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/3

TQ VERDICT: Winds Of Fire fell on his chase debut at Hereford earlier this month, but was a fair hurdler and if not affected by that last run can go well. Copper’s Cross won at Sedgefield last time but this looks a much harder race and despite only having 10-6 to carry is up another 4lbs in the ratings too. Having lost at 1/5 last time, then Tupelo Mississippi has a bit to answer, so the call is to side with the Alan King runner - VALLERES. This 6 year-old ran a fair third (of 11) at Newbury last time out on his return run, but lost a shoe in that race too. Therefore, it was still a top effort and with the expected improvement and that run sure to have blow away the cobwebs, then he looks the one to beat.

 

2.05 – BetFair Exchange Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV3

16/17 – Didn’t win their last race
15/17 – Irish bred
14/17 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
14/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
12/17 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 3m
12/17 – Unplaced last time out
11/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/17 – Had won at least 3 times over fences in the UK
7/17 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
7/17 – Unplaced favourites
5/17 – Aged 8 years-old
4/17 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Richards
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
8 of the last 11 winners were aged 8 or older
Takinrisks (20/1) won the race in 2019
Lake View Lad (5/1) won the race in 2018
Beware The Bear (11/4 fav) won the race in 2017
Otago Trial won the race in 2016
Note: The 2002, 2003, & 2004 runnings were at Chepstow

TQ VERDICT: The 12 year-old, Takinrisks - won this race a few years ago but is rated 4lbs higher this time and time isn’t on his side. Dingo Dollar often runs well here - winning by 10 lengths at the track back in March. He’s rated 12lbs higher this time though, so does have a bit to prove off this mark for me. On a plus, his trainer - Sandy Thomson - has a 30% record with their chasers here, they also run The Ferry Master. Nuts Well won on his return this season at Kelso and is a course winner, but the step up in trip here isn’t sure to suit and is a big unknown. Some Chaos and Notachance were both pulled up last time and need to recover from that. Good Boy Bobby is the only recent winner in the field, but the step up in trip would be the worry. The two I’m going to side with are GLEN FORSA (e/w) and AYE RIGHT. The first-named was a fair fourth on his return at Ascot so will be better for that and with just 10-4 and a mark of only 136 is looking very well handicapped on old form - having been rated in the 150’s only last year! Aye Right was running over 2m1f last time at Kelso - a trip on the short side for him. But it would have blown away the cobwebs for this and having been runner up in the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase at this time of the year 12 months ago then that’s another good sign.

3.15 – BetFair Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

19/19 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
17/19 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
17/19 – Finished in the first two in their latest race
16/19 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle later that same season
16/19 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
15/19 – Placed favourites
14/19 – Officially rated 151 or higher
13/19 – Won their last race
11/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/19 – Placed in the top 6 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
9/19 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/19 – Won by an Irish bred horse
5/19 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
5/19 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 of last 13)
4/19 – Won by an Irish based yard
3/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/19 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 7)
2/19 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi, 2018 Buveur d’Air)
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 5/1
Epatante (8/11 fav) won the race in 2020

Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury

TQ VERDICT: A decent renewal with the current champion - Epatante - in the race, plus the top-rated pair of Sceau Royal and Silver Streak, while the new kid on the block - Monmiral, who is yet to lose a race from 5 starts. Add in Not So Sleepy, who is certainly no back number then we are in for a fascinating race. 12 months ago EPATANTE beat Sceau Royal by 4 ¼ lengths in this race and even though the King horse has done well already this season - winning twice - the fact he’s got to give 7lbs away to the current champion will probably be the difference again. The fly in the ointment for Epatante could be the unbeaten Monmiral, who has risen up the ranks and done nothing wrong. The last time he was out was in April, when winning the Grade One Anniversary 4yo Hurdle at Aintree in easy fashion and looks a horse that could go to the very top. But he’s also got to give away 7lbs to Epatante and with the two horses rated within just a pound of each other then on these terms the weights certainly favourite the Henderson horse. Yes, he’s got a bit to prove, but is still only 7 and goes well fresh, plus the former Champion Hurdler wasn’t disgraced in running third to Honeysuckle in that same race last March.

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