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8th December 2021

Saturday Racing Tips and Trends: 6th November 2021

This Saturday the ITV cameras head to Wincanton with the Badger Beer Handicap Chase, their feature, plus they are also at Doncaster for the ultra-competitive November Handicap and also take in two Aintree contests as always, here at TQ we've got all the trends and stats for the LIVE races….. 

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)


1.25 –
Virgin Bet Handicap Cl2 7f ITV4

9/11– Had run at least 6 times before that season
9/11 – Won over at least 7f before
8/11 – Carried 9-1 or less
8/11 – Had run at Doncaster before
8/11 – Won at least 3 times in their career
8/11 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/11 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
7/11 – Officially rated between 88 and 93
6/11 – Carried 8-13 or less
5/11 – Unplaced last time out
4/11 – Returned a double-figure price
3/11 – Winning favourite
2/11 – Winning mares/fillies

TQ VERDICT: A trick handicap to start the LIVE ITV action on Town Moor, but with 8 of the last 11 winners carrying 9-1 or less, this is a good place to start. This trend knocks out the top six on the card - Accidental Agent, Dashing Roger, Tomfre, Young Fire, Boosala and Fresh. 9 of the last 11 winners had run at least six times that season too, which is good news for most - barring previous course winner, Hafeet Alain, who has only had one outing this season. Having run at Donny before is another plus, while 7 of the last 11 winners were aged 3 or 4 years-old. With this in mind, the bottom weight - PAWS FOR THOUGHT (e/w) - looks interesting. This 3 year-old has been running better than his finishing positions suggest in recent runs but has been given a chance by the handicapper being dropped another 2lbs here and is now rated a pound lower than his last win, while he’s also run well at the track in the past too. The other two of interest are BERNARDO O’REILLY and BOARDMAN (e/w). The former gets in here with just 8-5 to carry and has not been beaten far in his last five races. Trip and ground are fine too and his overall form at the track is not too shabby. Boardman was only beaten 2 ¼ lengths in a 21-runner race at York last time and is a pound lower here. He kept on well in the final stages over that 6f trip too, which suggests this step back up in distance is a good move.
 

2.05 – Betfair Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

15/17 – Had at least 6 previous runs that season
15/17 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Had won over 6f before
14/17 – Won from stall 12 or lower
14/17 – Rated 99 or higher
14/17 – Aged 4 or older
12/17 – Had won at least 5 times before in their career
9/17 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
8/17 – Had won at Doncaster before
8/17 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
5/17 – Ran at York (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
5/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
3/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Winning mare/filly
Dakota Gold (4/1) won the race in 2020
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

TQ VERDICT: The Michael Dods-trained Dakota Gold took this race 12 months ago and is certainly a player again. He’s been running well this season, but is actually winless since taking this prize last season, which is a slight worry that age might be starting to catch up with this 7 year-old. CD winner Bielsa was a tidy winner of the Ayr Gold Cup two runs back but was back in the field when upped in grade in a G3 last time at Ascot (7th). He’s also taking on the horse that was second in that race - KING’S LYNN - here and I think he’ll be hard-pressed to overturn that form. This royal runner was only beaten a length in that better race and despite having to give a bit of weight away to all the others, is the top-rated in the field. Of the rest, recent winners - Magical Spirit, Molls Memory and Volatile Analyst command respect as the unexposed Haggas runner - Tarhib, who has won it’s last two well. But the other pick at a bigger price is the Henry Candy runner - JOUSKA (e/w). This 4 year-old gets a handy 8lbs from the other main pick and that brings her right into the mix. She’s been running in better races than this but it’s also interesting connections are dropping her back in trip to 6f here. The softer ground will bring her stamina into play, while she also has a fair record when dropped back into Listed level.

 

2.40 – Virgin Bet November Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV4

14/17 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
14/17 – Winners that came from draw 9 or higher
14/17 – Favourites that were unplaced
13/17 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
13/17 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
12/17 – Had won over 1m4f before
12/17 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
12/17 – Placed last time out
11/17 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/17 – Won carrying 8-13 or less in weight
10/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/17 – Won last time out
3/17 -Trained by John Gosden (won it 6 times in all)
2/17 – Ridden by jockey Martin Dwyer
1/17 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 11/1
Just 1 winning favourite since 1995

TQ VERDICT: 23 runners heading to post here and no shock to see another ultra-competitive renewal. It’s a race the Gosden yard have liked to target in recent years - winning the race 6 times in total. They have just the one runner this year - FIRST LIGHT. This 3 year-old clearly didn’t stay the 1m6f trip last time at Ascot so the drop back to 1m4f here will help. He’s lightly-raced with only six career runs and is only 4lbs higher than when winning over this trip at Ascot back in July. That last run also came off a 3 month break so should be a lot sharper for it, plus draw 12 here looks ideal with 14 of the last 17 winners coming from stalls 9 or higher. With that draw stat in mind, the Charlie Fellowes runner - Mr Curiosity, who has been popular all week, has that to overcome with draw 6. He is up 8lbs here but was a tidy winner last time out at Redcar over 1m6f so that proven stamina is a big plus. East Asia was another nice winner last time out at Nottingham, but is up 5lbs more here and draw 8 might not be ideal. Global Storm is the top-rated in the field for Godolphin and they help on that score with the promising Adam Farragher booked to ride and claiming 5lbs. The likes of Flying Solo, Sam Cooke and Calling The Wind are others to respect, but with a featherweight of just 8-3, the Hollie Doyle-ridden FARHAN (e/w) catches the eye. This 3 year-old has been runner-up the last three times too, including in a similar race to this last time at Newmarket. He’s also only been out of the top three twice from his 10 starts and certainly won’t mind the softer ground - having won in these conditions this time last season at Ponty.

 

Wincanton Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


1.50 - John Romans Park Homes ‘Rising Stars’ Novices Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

14/14 – Had won no more than twice over fences
13/14 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
12/14 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/14 – Irish (6) or French (5) bred
11/14 – Favourites placed
10/14 – Had won over 2m3f or further (Chase)
10/14 – Aged 6 or younger
9/14 – Won last time out
8/14 – Winning favourites
7/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 5-7

TQ VERDICT: A cracking Novice Chase here, with several stars of the jumping game in the making. The Paul Nicholls yard have won this race 7 times in the last 14, so their pair Mick Pastor and BRAVEMANSGAME are sure to be popular. The former has won his last four in effortless fashion and deserves to take this step up in grade. But it’s interesting that jockey Harry Cobden picks to ride Bravemansgame having been on both Nicholls runners in recent runs. This 6 year-old was a high-class Novice Hurdler last season - finishing third in the Ballymore at the Festival and made a winning start to his chasing career at Newton Abbot last month. He beat Fusil Raffles by an easy 5 ½ lengths that day and the form of that run has since been franked with the runner-up winning the Charlie Hall Chase (albeit a bit lucky) last time out. He jumped well on debut and looks a chaser that can go to the very top. Next best can be Captain Tom Cat and Faivoir, who are both decent horses on their day too and getting 3lbs from the selection will help. Goa Lil and Jacamar look to have a fair bit to find at the weights on these terms.

 

2.25 – Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4

14/14 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Didn’t win last time out
12/14 – Aged 7 or younger
10/14 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Had won over at least 2m4f before (hurdles)
10/14 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
10/14 – Had won at least twice before (hurdles)
9/14 – Rated between 119-129
8/14 – Finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out
8/14 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
8/14 – Irish bred
8/14 – Aged 6 years-old
6/14 – Had run at the track before
5/14 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 10)
2/14 – Trained by Harry Fry (2 of the last 8)
2/14 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan

TQ VERDICT: The Paul Nicholls camp, who have a 32% record with their hurdlers here at the track, are persevering with Eglantine Du Seuil and Cut The Mustard, who haven’t progressed since coming over from Ireland, as many thought - they’ve both got a lot to answer in my book. CD winner, Rose Of Arcadia could be dangerous off a weight of just 10-4 and the Tizzard yard have been amongst the winners in the week. Kissesforkatie and Wynn House are others to note, but the two of interest here are GLOBAL HARMONY and UNE DE LA SENIERE. The former returns from a 204-day break but has only 10-3 to carry and the Skelton yard have a useful 20% record with their hurdlers here. He’s a proven CD winner too after an easy success here last December. The other pick - Une De La Seniere - returned to the track last month with an eye-catching win at Ludlow and despite being hiked up 6lbs for that looks a fast-improving hurdler for the Fergal O’Brien yard.

 

3.00 - 60th Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV4

18/18 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
16/18 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
16/18 – Won a 3m or further chase race previously
15/18 – Won by a horse aged between 7 and 9 years-old
15/18  – Placed in the top four in their last race
15/18 – Won at least two chase races previously
14/18 – Won between 2 and 5 times over fences before
14/18 –  Raced at the course previously (over fences)
12/18 – Favourites placed
11/18 – Irish-bred horse
11/18 – Raced already that season
11/18 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
10/18 – Raced at either Sandown (4), Wincanton (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
8/18 – Priced at double-figures
8/18 – Won their latest race
7/18 – Carried 10-5 or less in weight
7/18 – Favourites that won (1 joint, 1 Co)
7/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/18 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey (including 5 of the last 10 years)
4/18 – Won by the Pipe stable
El Presente (11/1) won the race in 2020

TQ VERDICT: El Presente took this race last year and is back for more, but this Kim Bailey runner is rated 6lbs higher this time. He’s had a wind op over the summer and is a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past. Potterman was a close second in the race last season too and should go well but is also 6lbs higher here and so would need a career-best. SOME CHAOS was another that ran well in this contest 12 months ago (5th) and returned with a win at Chepstow last month to show he’s in tip-top form. He’s up 7lbs more here though and is also 5lbs higher than last year in this race. However, he’d had a wind op over the summer and showed that had a good impact on him and could be ready to run well in this race again. The Paul Nicholls yard run Highland Hunter, and he’s sure to be popular too in a race the yard has won 7 times in the last 18 years. But he might not be much value as a result. Hurricane Harvey is a past course winner will be a lot fitter for a recent run at Chepstow off a break but despite having shown promise in the past is a horse that has a bit to prove for me. Cobra De Mai would have a squeak too, but was pulled up in this race 12 months ago and is now 12 races without a win. Irish Prophecy had 7 ¼ lengths in-hand of COUP DE PINCEAU (e/w) last time here but I think on better terms this Ralph Smith runner can reverse that form. They’ve also booked the useful Angus Cheleda to ride and claim a further 7lbs, while with just 10-6 to carry in weight will have a much lighter racing burden than last time.

 

3.35 - Unibet Elite Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

16/17 – Aged 7 or younger
15/17 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
13/17 – Won between 2-5 times before (hurdles)
12/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
10/17 – Unplaced last time out
10/17 – Rated 150 or lower
9/17 – Having first run of the season
5/17 – Ran at Aintree last time out
5/17 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
5/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by John Quinn
2/17 - Trained by Alan King
Sceau Royal won this race in 2016 and 2020

TQ VERDICT: All eyes will be on Goshen here - a horse with a load of ability but also his quirks. He bolted up in the Kingwell Hurdle here back in February by 22 lengths on one of his going days and connections will be hoping a return to this track will spark him back to life. He’s certainly a player - but comes with risks. With that in mind, the safer option looks to be to stick with the 2016 and 2020 winner of the race - SCEAU ROYAL. This 9 year-old returned to the track with a nice win in a Listed race at Kempton 3 weeks ago too and can also be expected to have come on for that outing. He looks a solid option that is sure to run his race. Belfast Banter landed the county hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last season and followed up at Aintree. But since then, has lost his way a bit and also needs to bounce back from a fall last time out at Listowel. SOLE PRETENDER (e/w) comes over from Ireland and brings some fair form to the table too and rates a live outsider. While the likes of Christopher Wood, Teqany and Hatcher are all closely-matched but seemingly have a bit to find on these terms with the principles.

 

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


2.15 – Betway Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV

15/16 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
14/16 – Aged 8 or older
14/16 – Rated 124 or more
12/16 – Had run at Aintree before (5 over the GN style fences)
12/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
12/16 – Had won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
10/16 – Irish bred
9/16 – Carried 10-12 or more
8/16 – Returned a double-figure price
6/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National
2/16 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
1/16 – Won last time out
Beau Bay (20/1) won the race in 2020
Hogan’s Height (16/1) won the race in 2019
12 of the last 15 winners were aged 8 or 9 years-old

TQ VERDICT: Jamie Snowden’s Hogan’s Height was a nice winner of this race in 2019 and is only 4lbs higher this time - he’s the only course winner in the field and over these National fences that’s a big plus - Snowden also runs Thomas Macdonagh and it would be no shock to see him go well too. Time To Get Up stayed on well to take the Midlands National last time out in March and is a fast-improving staying chaser, but you just feel this drop back in trip might not be ideal for him. CAT TIGER third in the Foxhunters over these fences last season so that experience will be an asset. He’s a consistent sort from the Paul Nicholls yard that’s only been out of the first three over fences once from 12 starts. He looks a solid option and jockey David Maxwell is also able to claim 3lbs here - that could be the difference. Of the rest, Senior Citizen is another player, having finished third in the Topham Chase over these fences last April, but could only manage 7th in this race 12 months ago. The horse that was runner-up last year though - SIR JACK YEATS (e/w) - tries again and he could be the value. He was beaten 5 lengths last year but is off the same mark here that experience would have helped. With only 10-6 to carry he can go well again.

3.20 – Betway Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo) 2m4f

6 previous runnings
5/6 - Aged 9 or younger
5/6 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
3/6 – Winning favourites
2/6 – Owned by Simon Munir and Isaac Souede
2/6 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/6 – Ridden by Nico de Boinville
Summerville Boy won the race in 2020

TQ VERDICT: This can go to last year’s winner - SUMMERVILLE BOY again. This Tom George runner gets a handy 6lbs from Brewin’upastorm and that can be the difference. He won this race first time out last season - therefore, the 301-day break isn’t too much of a worry either. Brewin’upastorm was last seen running 5th in the Aintree Hurdle here in April and has since had a wind op over the summer. The soft ground is a plus and he looks sure to play a big part too. If The Cap Fits and Wilde About Oscar are other course winners in the field and we’ve also got the 2020 Stayers’ Hurdle winner - Lisnagar Oscar in the race. But his 8 year-old has failed to win a race since, which is a concern, as is the drop in trip. So, the danger, of those at bigger prices, can come from the Lucy Wadham runner - MARTELLO SKY. This 5 year-old has a bit to find at the weights, but gets a handy 11lbs off Brewin’upastorm and having won 4 of her last five races is a fast-improving mare. With a few question marks against the bigger names in the race, she could easily run a big race.

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