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6th December 2022

TV Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 25th June 22

The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to Newmarket, to take in three races.

Did you know - 16 of the last 20 Northumberland Plate winners were aged 6 or younger?

Plus, it’s also Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh - Here at TQ we've got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RacingTV)

2.05 – Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies’ Stakes Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV

18/19 – Never raced at the track before
16/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
15/19 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
12/19 – Came from stall 5 or lower
11/19 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
11/19 – Didn’t win their previous race
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
4/18 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
4 of the last 8 winners came from stall 5
7 of the last 11 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2


TQ BEST BET: MINNETONKA

TQ DANGER:  MALRESCIA

2.40 - Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

10/11 - Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
10/11 - Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/11 - Had won over at least 1m4f before
9/11 - Won 3 or more times
8/11 - Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
8/11 - Placed favourites
8/11 - Rated 100+
5/11 - Had run at the track before
4/11 - Winning favourites
3/11 - Ran at York last time out
3/11 - Trained by David Simcock
2/11 - Ridden by William Buick
Universal Order won this race in 2020
The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2


TQ BEST BET: UNIVERSAL ORDER

TQ DANGER:  STOWELL

3.15 – Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

18/20 – Won over 7f before
18/20 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
17/20 – Had at least 1 run already that season
13/20 – Aged 5 or younger
12/20 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/20 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
9/20 – Came from stall 3 or lower
9/20 – Unplaced favourites
6/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/20 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 11 runnings)
2/20 - Trained by Henry Candy (2 of last 3 runnings)
8 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2


TQ BEST BET: LANEQASH

TQ DANGER:  ART DU VAL

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.50 – At The Races App Market Movers Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 6f ITV

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 - Aged between 3-6 years-old
5/5 - Had won over 6f before
5/5 - Won between 2-5 times
5/5 - Carried 9-2 or more in weight
4/5 - Returned between 15/2 or shorter
4/5 - Drawn in stalls 10 or higher
4/5 - Placed favourites
4/5 - Rated between 96 and 99 (inc)
3/5 - Unplaced last time out
3/5 - Had run at the track before
2/5 - Came from stalls 10
1/5 - Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 9/1


TQ BEST BET: LANEQASH

TQ DANGER:  ART DU VAL


2.25 –
Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

19/20 – Had won over 6f before
18/20 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/20 – Unplaced last time out
15/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
13/20 – Yet to win a Group race
12/20 – Placed favourites
12/20 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/20 – Aged 5 or older
8/20 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/20 – Had run at Newcastle before
3/20 – Won last time out
2/20 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/20 – Trained by Richard Fahey
Judicial (9/1) won the race in 2020
12 of the last 19 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1


TQ BEST BET: GLEN SHIEL

TQ DANGER:  SENSE OF DUTY

3.00 - Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation race for the Plate) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
6/6 – Ran in the last 2 months
6/6 - Won with between 9-3 and 9-10 in weight
5/6 - Won over at least 1m6f in the past
5/6 - Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
3/6 – Winners came from stalls 11-19 (inc)
3/6 - Won over 2m (flat) in the past
3/6 - Winning favourites
2/6 – Won last time out
2/6 – Had run at Newcastle (flat) before
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 8/1


TQ BEST BET: RAVENS ARK

TQ DANGER:  AURIFEROUS

3.30 – Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV

19/20  - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
19/20 – Finished fifth or better last time out
16/20 – Came from stall 14 or lower
16/20 – Aged 6 or younger
16/20 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
15/20 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
12/20 – Carried 8-12 or less
11/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/20 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
7/20 – Won by a National Hunt yard
6/20 – Won their previous race
5/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
3/20 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 14 winners)
2/20 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/20 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 7)
1/20 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 13.5/1
Note: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

Just 1 horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985 (2021, Nicholas T (9))
Five of the last 16 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Ten winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 4 of the last 10
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001


TQ BEST BET: BANDINELLI

TQ DANGER:  ISLAND BRAVE

 

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