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25th September 2021

York Ebor Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Sat 21st Aug 2021)

The York Ebor Festival concludes on Saturday 21st August 2021, as the four-day meeting heads into it's final day.

Four more LIVE ITV races to take in, including the Group Three Strensall Stakes, but the final day is always spearheaded by the Ebor Handicap - Europe's most valuable handicap - did you know that 17 of the last 19 Ebor Handicap winners carried 9-5 or less in weight, while 15 of the last 19 winners came from a double-figure stall?

As always, we'll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

 

DAY FOUR - Saturday 21st August 2021

 

1.50 – Sky Bet And Symphony Strensall Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m208y ITV

18/18 – Had won over at least a mile before
18/18 – Had won at least twice in the their career
17/18 – Had between 2 and 4 runs already that season
15/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/18 – Had won over a mile before
7/18 – Won by Godolphin
7/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/18 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
4/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
4/18 – Had won at York before
3/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (2 of last 4)
3/18 – Trained by David O’Meara (3 of last 7)
2/18 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
Certain Lad (10/1) won the race in 2020
Zaaki (7/2) won the race in 2019
Lord Glitters (2/1 fav) won the race in 2018

Note: The 2009 running was a dead-heat

TQ VERDICT: LORD GLITTERS is still the second top-rated in the field (115) and ran a blinder last time to be only 3 ¼ lengths behind the classy Palace Pier in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out. He’s dropped into a Group 3 here, so should find this a lot easier and the extra furlong is a plus as he always finishes his races off well. Yes, it won’t be easy having to give weight away too all the others but he’s still showing a good appetite for his racing, while that last run has been given a boost since. Regular jockey, Danny Tudhope rides, and his trainer, David O’Meara, has won 3 of the last 7 runnings of this race too. Brunch and Lord Oberon are the other two course winners in the field to respect - especially the last-named who is another that’s been running in better races than this. Real World, who is the top-rated in the line-up, heads in in tip-top form after wins at Ascot and Newbury, but this Godolphin runner is up in class here today again so would need another step forward. But the other pick is the only 3 year-old in the race - EL DRAMA - who gets a massive 14lbs off Lord Glitters. He landed the Dee Stakes at Chester earlier this season and despite not kicking on from that win since, has been running in better races. He gets in here with just 8-12 to carry and upwards of 7lbs+ from all the others as a result.

 

2.25 – Sky Bet Melrose Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f ITV

16/18 – Never raced at York before
15/18 – Had 4 or more runs that season
14/18 – Had a top 5 finish last time out
13/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
13/18 – Won carrying 9-0 or less
13/18 – Had won over 1m4f or further
12/18 - Drawn in stall 8 or lower
4/18 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/18 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/18 – Trained by William Haggas
2/18 – Ridden by William Buick
2/18 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (2 of last 4)
Coltrane (12/1) won the race in 2020

TQ VERDICT: 22 runners heading to post here, but with 14 of the last 18 winners finishing in the top 5 last time out this is a good trend to start with. This is a plus for KING OF THE CASTLE, DHUSHAN, MOSHAAWER, TASHKHAN, MARSHALL PLAN, OMAN, GOLDEN FLAME, SUMMER’S KNIGHT, IMPERIAL SUN, ANNANDALE, VALLEY FORGE TRUE COURAGE, CHARGING THUNDER, RAVENSCRAIG CASTLE and ALPINE STROLL. 15 of the last 18 winners also had 4+ runs that season, so of those mentioned this would be a negative for Ravenscraig Castle, Imperial Sun and Moshaawer. Next up is 13 of the last 18 successful horses won with 9-0 or less - this might be seen as a negative for the Aidan O’Brien-trained King Of The Castle, Dhushan, who comes from the Haggas yard that have a good record in the race, Tashkhan, Marshall Plan, Oman and Golden Flame. 12 of the last 18 winners also won from stalls 8 or lower - good news for SUMMER’S KNIGHT (3), ANNANDAEL (2), TRUE COURAGE (7) and ALPINE STROLL (6), so these are the four we’ll be playing here. The former is a typical Sir Mark Prescott improver, having won 4 of this last 5 and despite being up 8lbs and raised in class, he did it by an easy 4 ¾ lengths to suggest there is more to come. True Courage is another in form, having won his last three and has a similar profile to Summer’s Knight - up in grade and raised 8lbs. Annandale represents the Mark Johnston yard that took this in 2015 and has been running consistently this season too, while the Ed de Giles runner - Alpine Stroll - has just 8-2 to carry and jockey Adam Farragher takes off another 5lbs.


3.00 – Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f ITV

17/18 – Failed to win last time out
16/18 – Aged 5 or younger
15/18 – Priced 7/1 or shorter
14/18 – Drawn in stalls 4 to 8 (inc)
13/18 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
13/18 – Never run at York before
12/18 – Winning distance 1 length or less
11/18 – Had 4 or more runs that season
7/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/18 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
3/18 – Won by trainer Andrew Balding
1/18 – Placed horses from stall 1
Safe Voyage (4/1) won the race in 2020
Shine So Bright (6/1) won the race in 2019

TQ VERDICT: Last season’s winner of this race - Safe Voyage - can’t be ruled out but has had a bit of a mixed season so far and trailed in last of 8 in his previous run at Goodwood in the G2 Lennox Stakes. Godolphin’s Space Blues was a close fourth in the already mentioned Lennox Stakes last time and with that run coming off a 4-month break can be expected to be better for it. He’s the top-rated in the field and a proven CD winner too. He’ll also be more at home on this better ground with the softer conditions last time probably just going against him - he can go well. But I feel the Ed Walker runner - PRIMO BACIO - won’t be a pushover. She’s been running well this season - having finished close-up in the G1 Falmouth and Prix Rothschild the last twice. She should also be suited by drop back to 7f here, is a proven course winner and being a 3 year-old filly gets a handy 8lbs off Space Blues. Of the rest, SIR BUSKER (e/w) rarely runs a bad race and can go well again for e/w bankers. He was last seen running well in the Sovereign Stakes over a mile, but the drop back to 7f here looks interesting. Pogo and Glorious Journey are others to respect if bouncing back from below-par runs last time out.

 

3.35 – Sky Bet Ebor (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m6f ITV

18/19 – Aged 6 or younger
17/19 – Carried 9-5 or less
16/19 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
15/19 – Won from a double-figure stall
13/19 – Winning Distance - 1 length or less
12/19 – Carried 9-1 or less
12/19 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/19 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
10/19 – Unplaced favourites
10/19 – Had run at York before
6/19 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Irish-trained winners (5 of the last 11)
4/19 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
3/19 – Ran at Galway last time out
2/19 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/19 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011, third 2013)
2/19 – Winning favourites
Just two winning favourites since 1999
Since 1980 only one winner aged 7 or older
6 of the last 7 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 20/1

TQ VERDICT: 24 runners here for the competitive Ebor Handicap so a case can certainly be made for many. 6 of the last 7 winners, however, have been aged 5 or 6 years-old, while we’ve only seen one winner aged 7 or older since 1980. The 7+ year-old trend would be a negative for Mt Leinster, Fujaira Prince, Shanroe, Euchen Glen and On To Victory. 17 of the last 19 winners also carried 9-5 or less in weight - so the top 14 on the card also have this stat to overcome. If we go back to the positive age trend that’s seen 5 and 6 year-olds doing well in recent years, then of those with 9-4 or less in weight - SEXTANT, MAKAWEE, MIRANN, TRIBAL CRAFT and GLOBAL STORM are the ones that tick a lot of boxes. You also can’t rule out Godolphin’s 4 year-old - Live Your Dream - who has won his last two in decent fashion, but is up another 7lbs here and is 3lbs worse off with another Godolphin runner - Global Storm - here - who he only beat ¾ of a length last time at HQ. With that in mind, GLOBAL STORM (e/w) gets the first pick and looks the better value to reverse that recent Newmarket form. Yes, he’s up 4lbs in the ratings, but has been running well over this 1m6f trip this season to suggest he’ll be thereabouts again. The other to have onside is the already mentioned - TRIBAL CRAFT (e/w) - who ran a blinder in the G2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood last time out. This Andrew Balding-trained 5 year-old was only 2 lengths behind the classy Wonderful Tonight in that race and now dropped into a handicap will be finding the opposition a lot easier. He’s also a proven CD winner and jockey David Probert is riding at the top of his game. Of those at the head of the weights, Euchen Glen, and Fujaira Prince, who won this pot last year (6lbs higher now) are the class acts in the field, but have 10-2 and 10-0 to carry, which will make life very hard despite their ability, while the Haggas pair of Ilaraab and Hamish are interesting - especially the later who showed ability a few seasons ago but also returns from a 428-day break. The Irish have won the race 3 times in the last 7 runnings and are well-represented here, with Sonnyboyliston, Mt Leinster and Mirann three leading runners from across the Irish Sea to respect.

 

4.10 – Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed Race) Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV

11/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Won between 1-2 times before
9/11 – Returned 13/2 or shorter
8/11 – Didn’t win last time out
8/11 – Won over 5f before
7/11 – Won by horses foaled in March
7/11 – Ran at Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (3) last time out
4/11 – Drawn in stall 9 (2) or 10 (2)
3/11 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/11– Winning favourites

 

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