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22nd February 2024

York Ebor Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Thurs 19th Aug 2021)

The York Ebor Festival continues on Thursday 19th August 2021, as the four-day meeting heads into it's second day.

Four more LIVE ITV races to take in, including the Group Two Lowther Stakes, plus the Group One Darley Yorkshire Oaks - did you know that 19 of the last 20 Yorkshire Oaks winners were aged 3 or 4 years-old, while 18 of the last 20 winners came from stalls 4 or higher

As always, we'll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.




Thursday 19th Aug 2021

1.50- Skybet Lowther Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV

18/19 – Had won over 5 or 6f before
18/19 – Had won at least once before
17/19 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
17/19 – Had not run at York before
15/19 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
14/19 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/19  - Drawn in stall 4 or higher
13/19 – Won last time out
7/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/19 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/19 – Trained by William Haggas

Note: 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket

TQ VERDICT: Several promising 2 year-olds on show here, but it’s hard to get away from the top-rated in the field - SANDRINE - who has won all three starts so far. She’s heads here having landed the G2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes at HQ last time and having had Desert Dreamer 1 ¾ lengths back in second there is every reason to feel she can uphold that form despite having to give away 3lbs this time. This Andrew Balding juvenile has impressed on all three of her starts and also had Hello You (another runner here) back in second when taking the G3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. The already mentioned pair of Desert Dreamer and Hello You can make bold bids again and look sure to be thereabouts, but of the rest a chance is taken on OUTSIDE WORLD and ZAIN CLAUDETTE as the two dangers. The former was an easy 4 length winner over this course and distance last time here and despite this being a step up the yard have a decent 21% record with their 2 year-olds here and a certain Frankie Dettori has also been booked to ride. Zain Claudette was last seen winning the G3 Princess Margaret Keenland Stakes at Ascot in July - she had Desert Dreamer a nose back in second that day but with only three career runs, as opposed to Desert Dreamer’s 6 outings, she might just have the scope for a bit more.


2.25 - Goffs UK Yearling Stakes (CLASS 2) (2yo) 6f ITV

19/19 – Had 1 or 2 career wins to their name
18/19 – Had 2 or more career runs
17/19 – Foaled in Feb or later
17/19 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
14/19 – Foaled in Feb or March
13/19 – Won from stall 10 or higher
13/19 – Placed favourites
7/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon (4 of last 5 winners)
3/19 – Trained by Brian Meehan
3/19 – Trained by William Haggas (inc 3 of last 8 winners)
2/19 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/19 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
0/19 – Placed horses from stall 1

Note: 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket
2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 renewals were run at Doncaster

TQ VERDICT: A big pot up for grabs for these 2 year-olds. It’s hard to ignore the good recent record of the Hannon and Haggas yards in the race - no runners this year for Haggas, but with Hannon having four - SYMPHONY PERFECT, THREE DONS, SYSTEM and OH HERBERTS REIGN. All four are respected, but with Ryan Moore riding the last-named Oh Herberts Reign, then a chance is taken on him and also System, who is already a Listed grade winner. The former is dropping back to 6f and that looks a plus after running well the last day over 7f and just getting caught and hanging a bit too, while System is one of the top-rated in the field having won a Listed at HQ in June and then running a close 5th in the Princess Margaret Keenland Stakes at Ascot in July. A repeat of those efforts would see her go close. Of the others, CD winner Atomic Lady enters calculations, as does Wings Of War, who won well at Nottingham last time out and looks a nice colt for the Clive Cox yard. It’s also a race the Kevin Ryan yard have won a few times before, so their Smullen, Shaladar, Monsieur Jumbo and GREEN TEAM (e/w) are interesting - especially the last-named with Tom Marquand riding. Marquand has a cracking 30% record riding 2 year-olds here at York in recent years and this Wotton Bassett colt ran a fair race on debut at Haydock last month. He’ll have learned a lot from that outing and draw 20 should give him a chance to bag the rail.

3.00 - Clipper Logistics Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

17/18 – Had won 2 or more times before
16/18 -  Winning distance of 2 lengths or less
14/18 – Returned 15/2 or bigger in the betting
13/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/18 – Ran at Ascot (4), Sandown (3), Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (2) last time out
12/18 – Had 4 or more runs already that season
12/18 – Unplaced last time out
12/18 – Won from stall 12 or lower
11/18 – Carried 9-0 or less
2/18 – Won by the Hills (Barry/Charlie) stable
1/18 – Winning favourites
Montatham (7/2) won the race in 2020
What’s The Story (12/1) won the race in 2019
Poet’s Society (20/1) won the race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: A competitive 20 runner handicap here next up and it’s not been the best race for the market leader in recent times, with just one winning favourite in the last 18 runnings going in. With 13 of the last 18 winners aged 3 or 4 years-old and also having raced at Ascot, Sandown, Goodwood or Newmarket last time out, these two trends combined are good news for - MAGICAL MORNING, FAME AND ACCLAIM, IRISH ADMIRAL, AMETIST and PYTHAGORAS. The only CD winners in the field are Escobar, Orbaan and La Trinidad, who has won his last two in good fashion and despite being up another 7lbs here can go well with Oisin Murphy booked to ride. The two Shadwell horses - Maydanny and Baashir - will be popular too, having both won well in their last races, but the former is up another 8lbs here and has a big weight (10st) to overcome as a result. Ryan Moore teams up with this old boos Sir Michael Stoute to ride Astro King, but the three we’ll take a chance on are FAME AND ACCLAIM, MAGICAL MORNING and IRISH ADMIRAL. The last-named was a close 5th last time at Newmarket and is down a pound for that. William Buick catches the eye riding this William Haggas runner too and with just seven career runs can have more in the locker to come. Fame And Acclaim will be ridden by Hollie Doyle and he’s done well for the Les Eyre camp since coming over from Ireland. A recent third at HQ was a good effort over 7f, but stayed on well to suggest this return to a mile is a big plus. Finally, Magical Morning will be popular with Frankie Dettori riding and I think you can forgive his last run with the ground turning a tad soft. He’s a better animal on faster ground and he’ll hopefully get that here. He also beat Maydanny at Sandown at the start of July and meets that Mark Johnston runner here on similar terms.


3.35 - Darley Yorkshire Oaks (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) ITV

19/20 – Aged 3 (13) or 4 (6) years-old
19/20 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
18/20 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
18/20 – Had at least 3 previous wins to their name
17/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
17/20 – Placed favourites
16/20 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
14/20 – Previous Group 1 winners
13/20 – Had won over 1m4f before
10/20 – Winning favourites
8/20 - Had run in that season’s Epsom Oaks (2 winners)
5/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (Won it 8 times in all)
2/20  - Trained by Jim Bolger
Love (4/9 fav) won the race in 2020

Note: 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket

TQ VERDICT: Just the seven runners heading to post here, but all eyes will be on the classy SNOWFALL, from the Aidan O’Brien yard, who is bidding for her fourth straight win this season. She’s already landed the Musidora Stakes here so the track is fine, while she’s since added the Epsom and Irish Oaks to her CV. She’s taken both those G1 races by 16 and 8 ½ lengths so it’s hard to crab her form and being a 3 year-old also gets a handy 9lbs off the 4 year-olds on the race - Wonderful Tonight and Albaflora. Of that pair, Wonderful Tonight has had another top season - winning the Hardwicke and Lille Langtry Stakes, but the key to her is softer ground and I’m not sure she’ll get that here. O’Brien also has La Joconde and Divinely in the race, but both were soundly beaten by Snowfall in the Irish Oaks last time. Eshaada and Loving Dream were separated by just ¾ of a length at Ascot last time in the G2 Ribblesdale Stakes with Loving Dream the one coming out on top. It should be another close call between the two, but they are rated 10lbs and 12lbs inferior to the selection so have plenty of ground to make up too. A ‘must-see’ race, but unless there is a lot of rain, which will make Wonderful Tonight interesting, it’s hard to see beyond Snowfall adding another lucrative G1 to her haul this season and giving her trainer - Aidan O’Brien - his sixth success in this race.