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23rd January 2021

2000 Guineas Free Tips and Betting Trends

The Qipco-sponsored 2,000 Guineas is a race run over 1m and is the first of the five English Classics to be run each season - with the 1,000 Guineas run the following day. Both races are staged at Newmarket racecourse, and for 3 year-olds only, the race is also seen as an early-season guide to that year’s Epsom Derby – the last horses to win both races in the same season were Sea The Stars (2009) and Camelot (2012).

We take a look back at past winners and highlight the key trends and stats ahead of the 2020 renewal – this year run on Saturday 2nd May 2020

Did you know? 12 of the last 18 2,000 Guineas winners came from the top 3 in the betting, while the powerful Aidan O'Brien yard have won 4 of the last 5 runnings.

Past 2,000 Guineas Winners

2019 – Magna Grecia (11/2)
2018 - Saxon Warrior (3/1)
2017 - Churchill (6/4 fav)
2016 – Galileo Gold (14/1)
2015 – Gleneagles (4/1 fav)
2014 – Night Of Thunder (40/1)
2013 – Dawn Approach (11/8 fav)
2012 – Camelot (15/8 fav)
2011 – Frankel (1/2 fav)
2010 – Makfi (33/1)
2009 – Sea The Stars (8/1)
2008 – Henrythenavigator (11/1)
2007 – Cockney Rebel (25/1)
2006 – George Washington (6/4 fav)
2005 – Footstepsinthesand (13/2)
2004 – Haafhd (11/2)
2003 – Refuse to Bend (9/2)
2002 – Rock of Gibraltar (9/1)

Key 2,000 Guineas Trends & Stats

18/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/18 – Had won over at least 7f before
16/18 – Had won a Group race before
16/18 – Had won between 2-5 times before
15/18 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
14/18 – Won last time out
13/18 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
13/18 – Having their first run of the season
12/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
11/18 – Won by an Irish-based yard
10/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
7/18 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 3
7/18 – Had won over a mile before
6/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
4/18 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (2 winners)
4/18 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
3/18 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 10/1

Other 2,000 Guineas Facts

- Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
- Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016

TQ VERDICT: Godolphin last had the winner of the 2000 Guineas back in 2013 (Dawn Approach) and have had three winners in this Group One Classic three times in total. However, that could easily be added to here with the very useful PINATUBO looking all the rage. This 3 year-old heads into the race 6-from-6 and rounded-off last season with an easy win in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes at here at Newmarket. The step up from 7f to 1m looks fine and that track experience is another big plus. Those looking to take him on might look to the trip but he’s got plenty of stamina in his breeding to suggest this distance is fine and the way he’s been winning over 7f indicates the extra furlong is within range. He also had Arizona, who looks to be one of his main rivals here, 2 lengths back last time out in the Dewhurst so should have the beating of this Aidan O’Brien runner again. Kameko was a nice winner of the Racing Post Trophy at Newcastle last November and looks a stronger challenger to the pick in my book. This Andrew Balding runner is already proven over this 1m trip and could have a very exciting season ahead. He is, however, still rated 10lbs inferior to Pinatubo so does have a bit of ground to make up. Of the rest, Godolphin also run Al Suhail and Military March, while Frankie is an interesting booking for another Aidan O’Brien runner – Wichita. But, of those at bigger prices, the Richard Hannon runner – MUMS TIPPLE (e/w), might be worth having a small interest in. The yard are no strangers to popping up with big-priced winners in both the English Guineas and despite running poorly last time out, he had an excuse – he was found to lame after the race. Prior to that, he’d won very well twice and even though the step up to 6f to 1m is an unknown, there is some hope based on breeding. He’s a horse that likes to get on with things, so if allowed get an easy lead on this quicker ground might just get a few of these at it – it’s just whether he can maintain that sort of gallop of this longer 1 mile trip…… we’ll see.

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