2000 Guineas Free Tips and Betting Trends

The Qipco-sponsored 2,000 Guineas is a race run over 1m and is the first of the five English Classics to be run each season - with the 1,000 Guineas run the following day. Both races are staged at Newmarket racecourse, and for 3 year-olds only, the race is also seen as an early-season guide to that year’s Epsom Derby – the last horses to land both races in the same season were Sea The Stars (2009) and Camelot (2012).

Here at TQ we take a look back at past winners and highlights the key trends and stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 1st May 2021

Did you know? 12 of the last 19 2,000 Guineas winners came from the top 3 in the betting?




Past 2,000 Guineas Winners

2020 – Kameko (10/1)
2019 – Magna Grecia (11/2)
2018 - Saxon Warrior (3/1)
2017 - Churchill (6/4 fav)
2016 – Galileo Gold (14/1)
2015 – Gleneagles (4/1 fav)
2014 – Night Of Thunder (40/1)
2013 – Dawn Approach (11/8 fav)
2012 – Camelot (15/8 fav)
2011 – Frankel (1/2 fav)
2010 – Makfi (33/1)
2009 – Sea The Stars (8/1)
2008 – Henrythenavigator (11/1)
2007 – Cockney Rebel (25/1)
2006 – George Washington (6/4 fav)
2005 – Footstepsinthesand (13/2)
2004 – Haafhd (11/2)
2003 – Refuse to Bend (9/2)
2002 – Rock of Gibraltar (9/1)

Note: The 2020 running was staged in June (Covid-19)

Key 2,000 Guineas Trends & Stats

19/19 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
17/19 – Had won over at least 7f before
17/19 – Had won a Group race before
17/19 – Had won between 2-5 times before
15/19 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
15/19 – Won last time out
14/19 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
14/19 – Having their first run of the season
12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/19 – Placed favourites
12/19 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
11/19 – Won by an Irish-based yard
10/19 – Irish bred
9/19 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
8/19 – Had won over a mile before
7/19 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 3
6/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/19 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (2 winners)
4/19 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
3/19 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 10/1

Other 2,000 Guineas Facts

- Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
- Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016

TQ VERDICT: A very open renewal of the first Classic of the season. The Aidan O’Brien camp are always feared in this race – winning it 10 times in total. They run three again this year – Wembley, Van Gogh and Battleground – both look to have big chances too. Wembley is likely to be the shorter of the two in the betting having run a decent second in the Dewhurst here last October. However, the fact he’s now been second four times from his 6 starts and won just the once would be the worry for me. Another O’Brien runner – Van Gogh – was a good winner in France last time, but that came on heavy ground and he’s unlikely to get the cut he probably needs this Saturday. So, of the O’Brien runners, that leaves BATTLEGROUND (e/w). This 3 year-old won the G2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last July and certainly wasn’t disgraced at the Breeders’ Cup last time when second to Fire At Will. He stayed on well that day, but also wasn’t the best away and had to race wide during the race – losing ground. Back on a straight track he shouldn’t have those issues and being the slightly lesser exposed of the O’Brien runners he gets the nod. Godolphin have a decent hand too with Craven Stakes winner – Master Of The Seas, One Ruler and Naval Crown. All three are respected, with the first two named CD winners too, but Master Of The Seas has shown a bit of temperament in his races too and even though he won last time, did was a bit free too – I’m not sure he’ll get away with that again in a race like this. The unbeaten Mutasaabeq is one to note in the market and is clearly well regarded to be running here and was a very easy course winner over 7f here last time. Chindit won the Greenham Stakes at Newbury last time over 7f – staying on well to suggest this 1m trip will be within range, but this is a step back up in class and was only 9th in the G1 Dewhurst here in October. Thunder Moon can go well too and was an excellent third in the Dewhurst, but all runs have been over 7f to date and so will have a bit to prove over this extra furlong. So, of those at a bigger price the Jim Bolger-trained POETIC FLARE (e/w) might be worth a small interest too. He’s won his last two at Listed and G3 level in Ireland and even though he was only 10th in the Dewhurst, that was only his second career run and he’s clearly progressed nicely since. The step up to a mile should suit and the shrewd Bolger yard won this in 2013 with Dawn Approach who is the sire of their runner this year!

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