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16th October 2021

Saturday Horse Racing Tips and Trends (18th Sept 21)

It’s Ayr Gold Cup Day in Scotland (Ayr racecourse) this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are also heading to Newbury for their Dubai Duty Free Day – We’ve 9 LIVE races in total and we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends for each race, plus our verdict.

Did you know? 15 of the last 20 Ayr Gold Cup winners FAILED to win their last race, while 11 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 8 or higher.

Use our key trends to whittle down the runners and help find the best profiles of past winners.

 

AYR Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.55 – Virgin Bet Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

10/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Yet to race at Ayr
9/10 – Won over 1m2f or more
9/10 – Winners from stalls 8 or lower
9/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Rated between 101 and 111
8/10 – Won 3 or more times before
7/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Aged 4 or older
6/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
3/10 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/10 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
Addeybb (11/10 fav) won the race in 2020

TQ VERDICT: The William Haggas-trained ADDEYBB took this race 12 months ago and looks primed to go well again this year. It won’t be easy with 9-10 to carry and giving weight away all round, but he’s the clear top-rated in the race off 125 and won this race carrying this burden last season too. A second in the G1 Coral-Eclipse last time out was a solid run and dropped back into Listed grade will make him very hard to beat. Of the rest, we could see John Leeper, who was well-fancied for the Derby in June, back on the track, but he’s not quite progressed as many thought and is overlooked. Best of the rest, look to be Euchen Glen, who was fourth in this race 12 months ago, but the Kevin Ryan-trained JUAN ELCANO looks the one to give the pick most to think about. This 113-rated 4 year-old has ben running in much better races than this, but last won when dropped into this grade in June when taking the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot. Of the rest, Victory Chimes would have place claims on his best form.

 

2.30 – Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

18/18 – Carried 8-11 or more
16/18 – Aged 5 or younger
16/18 – Previous winners over 6f
14/18 – Winning distance 1 length or less
14/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
14/18 – Carried 9-0 or more
13/18 – Had raced at Ayr before (5 won)
13/18 – Had 5 or more runs that season
12/18 - Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
11/18 – Finished 5th or better last time out
11/18 – Unplaced favourites
8/18 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
4/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/18 – Drawn in stalls 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have done best
3/18 – Winning Favourites
0/18 – Filly or mare winners
Magical Spirit (18/1) won the race in 2020
Golden Apollo (12/1) won the race in 2019
Snazzy Jazzy (11/1) won the race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: Some clues on offer here for the Ayr Gold Cup later on the card. 12 months we saw the Kevin Ryan-trained MAGICAL SPIRIT (e/w) win the race. He took the prize easily by 3 ½ lengths so the fact he’s rated 6lbs higher this time shouldn’t put you off. He’s not won a race since, but has been running in some competitive handicaps and showed a return to form last time at Ascot with a close third. Any rain would help and draw 4 looks perfect considering he actually won from this stall 12 months ago too! Sticking with the draw - in recent years, those drawn low or high have fared best in this race, with only 3 of the last 18 winners drawn between stalls 8-20. 16 of the last 18 winners were also aged 5 or younger, so of the 25 runners this might be a negative for seven runners - Air Raid, Soldier’s Minute, Staxton, Gabrial The Devil, Music Society, Black Friday and Golden Apollo. Trainer Richard Fahey has a fair record in the race too - he runs Strike Red and Gabrial The Devil, who was a nice winner at Chester last week. Blackrod is another to note, having won his last two but another Kevin Ryan runner - BERGERAC - gets the call as the other pick. This 3 year-old won well at York last time out and is only up 5lbs for that. Seems to act with a bit of cut should the rain come, while with just 9 career runs should have more in the locker to come. The final one to have on your radar is ROYAL SCIMITAR (e/w). This Clive Cox runner has been running well in defeat of late and another bold showing looks on the cards with the first-time blinkers a nice move that could eke out a bit more improvement.

 

3.05 – Virgin Bet Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (for The Ayrshire Agricultural Challenge Cup) Cl1 6f ITV

16/18 – Finished 4th or better last time out
16/18 – Had never raced at Ayr before
14/18 – Previous winners over 6f
14/18 – Had won once or two times before
14/18 – Winning distance 1 length or further
13/18 – Had 3 or more runs that season
13/18 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
12/18 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
11/18 – Placed favourites
8/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/18 – Trained by Bryan Smart
4/18 – Winning favourites
Umm Kulthum (9/4 fav) won the race in 2020

TQ VERDICT: The Irish raider - Head Mistress - was a good Listed winner at the Curragh last time out and the step up to 6f (from 5f) looks sure to suit based on the way she ran on that last day. Canonized is sure to go well too having run well in recent races at this sort of level, but does have a bit to prove still for me in this grade. Crazyland, Choux, Misty Ayr, Nazanin and Scot’s Grace all have cases, while the top-rated Hellomydarlin is probably the one to beat. This George Boughey runner was a fair second in a Listed race at Ripon last time out and her last four runs over this 6f trip read 2-3-3-2. But it’s still a bit worrying she’s only won the once from 7 outings so might just be a bit exposed and vulnerable to an improver. Step forward the Kevin Ryan-trained HALA HALA ATHMANI. This 2 year-old caught the eye when winning easily at Carlisle last month - winning by 5 ½ lengths. Yes, this is a big step up in grade here today, but it was hard to not be taken by the performance and connections clearly feel she’s up to tackling this grade on only her second start.

3.40 – Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

20/20 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
18/20 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
17/20 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
15/20 – Had won over 6f before
15/20 – Failed to win their last race
13/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/20 – Rated 90-101
13/20 – Carried 9-1 or more
13/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/20 – Came from a double-figure stall
11/20 – Had 7 or more runs that season
11/20 – Unplaced favourites
11/20 – Winning distance 1 length or less
10/20 – Ran at either Doncaster (3), Goodwood (4) or Haydock (3) last time out
9/20 – Had raced at Ayr before
4/20 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/20 – Winning favourites (4 winning favs since 1980)
2/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/20 - Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 8)
0/20 – Filly or mare winners
11 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 16 winners came from stall 8)
Since 1980 just five winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 15/1
Note: The 2018 renewal was a dead-heat

TQ VERDICT: Another very competitive renewal of the Ayr Gold Cup. The first thing to note is that 11 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 8 or higher. This is, therefore, a negative for those drawn low - Great Ambassador (1) and Commanche Falls (2), who are both leading fancies, Hey Jonesy (3), Count D’orsay (4), Cheiefofchiefs (5), Fivethousandtoone (6) and Lexington Dash (7). We have seen 4 of the last 16 winners come from stall 8 though, so GULLIVER (e/w) is interesting. This 7 year-old has been running well of late and was only a neck behind Commanche Falls at Goodwood in July. He was also a close fourth in a Listed race in Ireland last time out and is 2lbs lower than when down the field in this race 12 months ago. Just Frank and Popmaster were both good winners last time out and will be popular too, while you feel the top-rated in the field - Summerghand - has a lot of weight to carry (10-1), but has been running well in much better races than this - including only beaten 3 ¾ lengths in the G1 Sprint Cup last time out at Haydock. Bielsa and Mr Wagu are others to consider, while the already mentioned - Great Ambassador - was a solid Listed winner last time out at York and does look an improving sort from the Ed Walker yard. However, this 4 year-old might not have the best draw in 1 and doesn’t look great value in a race with 25 runners in. The other pick, therefore, is the Tim Easterby runner - SUNDAY SOVEREIGN (e/w). This 4 year-old ticks a lot of the main trends and was a comfortable winner at Chester last time out. The form of that race has been franked since too, with the second winning at Chester last weekend. He’s up 5lbs for that win but looked to have a bit up his sleeve at the line, while his only try over this 6f trip resulted in an easy 6l win at the Curragh when trained in Ireland.

 

4.15 – Virgin Bet Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV

9/9 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
9/9 - Won at least twice before
9/9 - Rated between 89 and 96
8/9 - Won previously over 1m
7/9 - Aged between 3-5 years-old
7/9 - Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/9 - Drawn between stalls 3 and 9 (inc)
7/9 - Carried 9-3 or less in weight
7/9 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
5/9 - Irish bred
5/9 - Placed favourites
5/9 - Had run at Ayr before
3/9 - Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/9 - Trained by David O’Meara
2/9 - Winning favourites
Johan (9/2) won the race in 2020

TQ VERDICT: Johan won this race 12 months ago so following on from that horse’s name, then surely the Tim Easterby runner - Cruyff Turn - would be a apt winner. This 4 year-old has won three of his last four races, including last time out at York, but another 3lb rise here makes life harder again. 7 of the last 9 winners came between stalls 3 and 9 - this is a plus for Cruyff Turn, Challet, Shelir, Garden Oasis, Dance Fever and Young Fire. Of that bunch, DANCE FEVER and GARDEN OASIS stand out. The former has done all this recent running over 7f, but has been staying on well in those races to suggest the step up to a mile again is a good move. He’s finished in the first four in his last four outings too, but would probably want the ground to remain on the quicker side. Garden Oasis is also sure to be popular having won his last two at Ripon. He’s up 6lbs for the last of those victories but with those successes coming by just a neck and a nose could well be ahead of the handicapper still.

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.15 - Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y ITV

18/19 – Raced four or more times that season
17/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
16/19 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
16/19 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
16/19 – Won a Listed or Group race before
15/19 – Won over 5f previously
14/19 - Aged 5 or younger
13/19 – Won 4 or more times
12/19 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/19 – Previous Group race winners
6/19 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 3 of last 8 winners)
6/19 – Won their last race
6/19 – Favourites
5/19 – Mare winners
Lazuli (5/2) won the race in 2020
Maid In India (12/1) won the race in 2019
Mr Lupton (11/4 fav) won the race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: Dropping the Charles Hills runner - KHAADEM - back to 5f last time in a Listed race at Doncaster did the trick and it could be more of the same here. Up into a G3 this time, but he did it well last time out to suggest it was the right thing to do reverting back to the minimum distance. He might get slightly softer ground here, but we know he stays a bit further so that will help and has won on good-to-soft in the past too. His sternest challengers look to be Hurricane Ivor, who also won well last time out at Doncaster in a handicap, while the Clive Cox runner - Tis Marvellous - has bounced back to form with good wins at Ascot and Beverley - the last-named looks the biggest threat to the selection. King’s Lynn and Moss Gill are others that would go well on their best form, but would need to bounce back from average recent showings.

 

2.50 –Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m3f5y ITV

19/19 – Won over 1m2f (or further) previously
18/19 – Priced 9/1 or less
15/19 – Aged 5 or younger
15/19 – Had won at Listed or better class previously
14/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/19 – Had 4 or more career wins
11/19 – Favourites placed
11/19 – Raced at Newbury before
10/19 – Had won a Group race before
8/19 – Raced 5 or more times that season
7/19 – Won their last race
4/19 – Favourites that won
4/19 – Trained by David Simcock (including 4 of last 6 runnings)
4/19 – Raced at York last time
2/19 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Elarqam (2/1) won the race in 2020
Desert Encounter (9/4) won the race in 2019 and 2017

TQ VERDICT: Solid Stone, Ilaraab and Foxes Tales are all rated within a pound of each other, but Solid Stone has to give 3lbs away to Ilaraab and 6lbs away to Foxes Tales so course winners - Ilaraab, who won on this card 12 months ago, and Foxes Tales might have the upper hand this time. The David Simcock yard like to win this race too so their AD INFINITUM (e/w) could easily run better than her odds suggest. She’s back in trip and with just three career runs should have more to come, despite having a fair bit to find at the ratings. On a plus, she gets weight from all the others. The main player though is the William Haggas runner - AL AASY - who is rated 120 and clearly the highest in the race. This course winner has been a beaten favourite the last twice at Epsom and HQ, but they both came in better races than this. He’s been gelded since his last run too and the slight drop in trip here will suit - he should take all the beating.

 

3.25 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2f ITV

11/11 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/11 – Won over 1m2f or further before
10/11 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
9/11 – Won 3 or 4 times
9/11 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
7/11 – Drawn 8 or lower
6/11 – Rated between 92 and 96 (inc)
5/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Winners from stalls 1 (2) or 13 (2)
4/11 – Had run at Newbury before
Ilaraab (15/2) won the race in 2020

TQ VERDICT: 10 of the last 11 winners here were aged 3 or 4 years-old - good news for King Leonidas, Strait Of Hormuz, Aramaic, King Of Clubs, Mo’assess, Injazati and Further Measure. With 10 of the last 11 winners also carrying 9-2 or less, then of those mentioned - King Leonidas - would fall down here. It’s the William Haggas runner - ARAMAIC - that I’m going to side with though, having caught the eye to win well the last twice at Musselburgh and York. The last of those was an easy 3 ¼ length win over another of today’s runners - Pivoine - when upped to this trip and a 7lb rise for that might not be another to stop him going in again. He also represents last year’s winning stable. Godolphin’s Mo’assess actually beat the selection a neck at Kempton in August and has since won well since on the AW, but will need to transfer that form to the grass. The other pick is the Charlie Fellowes-trained INJAZATI, who won well at Newcastle last time out. He’s up 6lbs for that win and has also won on the grass before so the switch to the turf is fine. With only four career runs will have more to come too and I know the Fellowes yard think he’s a fair sort that is still improving.

 

4.00 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y ITV

15/19 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
15/19 – Won from draw 5 or lower
14/19 – Raced 3 or more times
14/19 – Won over 6f previously
14/19 – Favourites placed
12/19 – Foaled in March or later
11/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/19 – Favourites (or joint) that won
8/19 – Won exactly two races before
7/19 – Won by an April foal
6/19 – Won their previous race
5/19 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
4/19 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/19 – Trained by Karl Burke
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/19 – Filly winners

TQ VERDICT: A chance to see some promising 2 year-olds on show here - including the Gosden-trained DHABAB, who looks sure to be suited by the drop back from 7f to 6f. This well-bred colt clearly didn’t get home over 7f last time out in the G2 Superlative Stakes at HQ - losing two places in the closing stages to finish third. Prior to that he was a fair 6th in the Coventry Stakes over this trip and seems to be getting better with each race. Course winner - Gubbass - ran well in the G1 Prix Morny last time in France and has to be respected too, while Gimcrack Stakes fourth - Fearby - is another to note. But it’s the Gimcrack runner-up GIS A SUB (e/w) that might pick up the pieces if the Gosden runner performs below par. He was beaten only 1 ¼ lengths that day and in what doesn’t look the strongest renewals of this race, then having also not been beaten far in the G2 Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, then these bits of form would make him a worthy contender - James Doyle rides.

 

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