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16th October 2021

Saturday Horse Racing Tips and Trends (25th Sept 21)

The ITV cameras are at Newmarket this Saturday to show four LIVE races, with the Cambridgeshire Handicap their feature. Plus, they are also at Haydock to take in two competitive handicaps - as always, we’re on hand with all the key trends and stats……

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RACINGTV)

 

1.50 - Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m ITV4

19/19 – Had won one or two races before
18/19 – Had won over 7f or further before
18/19 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
17/19 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
16/19 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/19 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
15/19 - Either US or Irish bred
13/19 – Had only won over 7f before
12/19 – Foaled in Feb or March
10/19 – Won last time out
7/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/19 – Trained by John Gosden
2/19 – Trained by Mark Johnston
Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner 6 times
12 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

Note: From 2010 back the race was run at Ascot, except in 2005 (Newmarket)

TQ VERDICT: Just the seven runners here, but even though the likes of Howth, Oneforthegutter, Seattleking and Unconquerable have shown fair form, it would be a small shock if the winner isn’t coming from the main three in the market here - Royal Patronage, Masekela or Coroebus. The former caused a shock to lead from the front to win the G3 Acomb Stakes at York last time out over 7f. He stayed on well that day so the extra furlong should be fine - Jason Hart, who as won on him the last twice remains in the saddle. He should make another bold bid from the front. Masekela is another stepping up from 7f to 1m - he won the Listed Denford Stakes last time out at Newbury. However, I’m going to side with the Godolphin runner - COROEBUS - here, who has at least won over this 1m trip before. That success came on debut last time out on the July course here - winning by 1 ½ lengths. The runner-up, Saga, has since franked the form to win since and the Appleby yard have a decent 31% record with their 2 year-olds here. Of the rest, a small interest on the Aidan O’Brien runner - HOWTH (e/w) mainly due to the yard having won this twice in the last three seasons. He’s a winner over this trip and last time was actually only beaten ¾ of a length in a G2 at Leopardstown. He’s got a bit to find, but of those at bigger prices could be the value if you’re looking for a slight shock in the race.

 

2.25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV4

19/19 – Finished in the top two last time out
18/19 – Had won over 6f before
17/19 – Had not run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
17/19 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
16/19 – Foaled in Feb or March
15/19 – Had 3 or more previous runs
15/19 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Went onto run in the 1,000 Guineas the following season (2 won it)
13/19 – Placed favourites
12/19 – Won last time out
11/19 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
10/19 – Had won exactly 2 previous races
8/19 – Horses from stall 6 that finished in the top 3
7/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/19 – Winners drawn in stall 6
3/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 of last 5 runnings)
2/19 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas the following season
2/19 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/19 – Trained by Brian Meehan
10 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

TQ VERDICT: Flotus bounced back to winning way last time out with an easy success at Ripon at Listed level and if running to that form again can go close. She’s closely rated to several others in the race, like Corazon, the consistent Desert Dreamer, Have A Good Day and Sandrine. The last-named has won three of her four starts, but the winning run ended last time out at York when a second as beaten favourite in the G2 Lowther Stakes. She’s had a break since and that might be good enough to see her bounce back to form after a fairly busy start to her career. Zain Claudette was the horse that beat Sandrine last time out and has now won her last three - she’s a big player too on that form. It would be silly to overlook the Aidan O’Brien runner too - Tenebrism - despite this one only having the one outing and that came back in March. It was an easy win at Naas and is clearly held in some regard to be stepping up to a G1 here - Ryan Moore rides. However, the ones I’m siding with here though are SACRED BRIDGE and EVA LODGE (e/w). The first-named has won all her four starts and is the clear top-rated in the field. The Ger Lyons filly will need to step up again from G3 level (last time), but she couldn’t have been anymore impressive last time when winning by 3 ¾ lengths. The Eva Lodge has been supplemented for £20k for this race after winning a Listed contest at Kempton last time out. This Charlie Fellowes 2 year-old is well regarded by the yard and has clearly improved recently from her opening four runs that were only average. Jamie Spencer rides.

 

3.00 - Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) Cl1 6f ITV4

18/18 – Won over 6f previously
17/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
16/18 – Won their last race
16/18 – Won at least twice previously
15/18 – Had run 3 or more times previously
15/18 – Never raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
14/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
14/18 – Foaled in either Feb or March
12/18 – Favourites placed
11/18 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
6/18 – Ran at Deauville last time out
6/18 – Favourites that won
5/18 – Won by an Irish-based stable
4/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/18 - Trained by Clive Cox
2/18 - Trained by Mark Johnston
1/18 – Winners that came from stall 1
Aidan O’Brien won the race in – 2000, 2001, 2004, 2011, 2017 & 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

TQ VERDICT: The Aidan O’Brien yard have a good record in the race, so their HMS Endeavour and New York City will be popular. Of the two, the former - HMS ENDEAVOUR - is certainly going the right way after wins at Navan and Dundalk. They came over a bit shorter, but he’s won well each time so the 6f trip can hopefully bring out more improvement too. The Clive Cox yard have a fair record too - winning two of the last 9 - they run Caturra here, who was last seen winning the Flying Childers at Donny last time. He beat Armor by a neck that day, so there shoudn’t be much between the two again here. Dr Zempf is another leading Irish runner, who runs for the Ger Lyons yard - he was a close second in the G1 Phoenix Stakes last time out and with that only his second career run will have more to come. Go Bears Go, Castle Star, Twilight Jet and Asymmetric are others that can’t be ruled out, but it was hard to not be taken by the win of PERFECT POWER last time out when taking the G1 Prix Morny. He won going away that day - beating Trident by 1 ¼ lengths - and the Richard Fahey yard have managed to book jockey Christophe Soumillon, who rode him last time out.

 

3.40 – Bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m1f ITV

19/19 – Aged 6 or younger
16/19 – Won 3 or more times in their career
16/19 – Carried 9-5 or less
15/19 – Won from a double-figure stall
14/19 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
14/19 – Unplaced favourites
14/19 – Had won over 1m2f before
13/19 – Finished 5th or better last time out
13/19 – Rated between 90-100
13/19 – Returned a double (or treble) figure price in the betting
12/19 – Had 5 or more runs that season
11/19 – Carried 8-12 or less
5/19 – Ran at Newbury last time out
4/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Trained by John Gosden
3/19 – Won their last race
2/19 - Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/19 - Trained by Marcus Tregoning
13 of the last 15 winners had run in the last 9 weeks
The last 6 winners came from stalls 21 or higher
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 21/1

TQ VERDICT: 35 runners here, so - as always - a super competitive renewal of this popular handicap. With all of the last 19 winners aged 6 or younger this is a good place to start with the trends. Of the 35 runners, this would be a negative for just Anythingtoday, Trais Fluors and You’re Hired though.  16 of the last 19 winners carried 9-5 or less in weight too - so the top five on the card - Bell Rock, Magical Morning, last year’s winner - Majestic Dawn, Raise You and Royal Marine are overlooked too. It’s a race the Gosden yard have liked to target too in recent years, so it’s no shock to see them having another leading player - Uncle Bryn. This 3 year-old is up just 4lbs for a nice win at Ascot last time out and jockey Robert Havlin is 2-from-2 on the horse. Draw 30 looks ideal, but you just feel he’s a bit short in the betting in a race with 34 other runners in - unless you’re on at bigger prices. Last year’s winner - Majestic Dawn - is rated 10lbs higher this time, but don’t forget he won this by an easy 4 ¾ lengths last season. He’s not won since though, but hasn’t been disgraced, while another high draw in 34 helps. He’ll be looking to become the first back-to-back winner since Prince de Galles won the race in 1969 and 70! Bell Rock was a fair third last year but is 5lbs higher this time, while Lucander (2nd), You’re Hired (4th) and Anythingtoday (7th) were other notable runners from last year that line-up again. Looking at the draw, it could pay to note that ALL of the last six winners came from stalls 21 or higher - this would be a plus for 15 of the 35 runners. Cases can be made for the likes of Astro King, Long Tradition, Fantastic Fox, Irish Admiral and Dance Jupiter for the Joseph O’Brien yard that will be looking to grab a rare win for the Irish here. The three I like there though are the already mentioned LUCANDER, ANMAAT and CHICHESTER. The former was a fair second in the race 12 months ago and gets in here off a 3lb lower mark. Draw 28 is ideal too - had draw 27 last year - and he heads here in good order after a close second at York last time out. Anmaat has won his last two in good fashion at Bath and Donny. Up just 4lbs for the last of those, draw 22 is a plus and he gets in here with only 8-9 of weight - Jim Crowley rides. Finally, Chichester has been well supported for this race all week and it was hard to not be taken by his 6 ½ length romp at Ayr last time out. Up just 3lbs in the ratings for that, but he travelled so well into the race that day, that you feel there is more to come. Draw 10 gives him a few options and it’s interesting that Hollie Doyle has been booked to ride.


HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – Betway Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV4

13/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
12/14 – Didn’t win last time out
11/14 – Had won 1 or 2 times before
11/14 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/14 – Drawn in stalls 8 or lower
9/14 – Irish bred winners
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
7/14 – Had raced at Haydock before
4/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Tom Dascombe
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

TQ VERDICT: A decent tight handicap here with many chances. The Godolphin runner - Noble Destiny - will be popular after winning at Thirsk last time out. He’s up just 2lbs for that but connections have booked the useful Adam Farragher to claim 5lbs. He should also be a lot better for that last run as it came off a 5-month break and has also only had four career runs, so there should be scope to improve. Young Fire is the only proven course winner in the field, but he was well behind another runner here - Cruyff Turn - at York last time out. Cruyff Turn has since been beaten at Ayr and you feel might just be in the handicapper’s grip now. Latest Generation and United Front have claims too, but the two picks here are NUGGENT and AFFAAK. The former was running on well when second at Thirsk last time out - that was back in May so heads here fresher than most and will love the quick ground. Affaak, needs to find a bit of form but might be worth chancing off his dropping mark. The Hills yard also took this back in 2015 and there were signs of a revival last time out when he was 5th (of 11) at Newbury. He’s down another pound here to a mark of 98 and considering he was running well when rated as high as 106 last year, then his ailing mark catches the eye.

 

2.40 – Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4

14/14 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/14 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
14/14 – Had won over 5f before
13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
11/14 – Came from stalls 7-11 (inc)
11/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/14 – Carried 8-11 or more in weight
11/14 – Had won between 2-4 times before
10/14 – Favourites placed
8/14 – Rated between 92-96
8/14 – Had raced at Haydock before
8/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/14 – Trained by Jamie Osborne
2/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/14 – Ridden by Adam Kirby
Dakota Gold won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

TQ VERDICT: Plenty of well-known handicap sprinters on show here, but the bulk are heading here not in great form either. Be Proud was a close second at Ayr last weekend for today’s jockey Amie Waugh, who claims 5lbs again, and can go well again. The drop back to 5f is fine - won over this trip at Sandown last month and in this better race gets in with just 8st 6lbs in weight. But 11 of the last 14 winners had 8-11 or more in their backs, so this might be a negative for the bottom four on the card - Mokaatil, Lihou, Be Proud and Show Me Show Me. Copper Knight was 6th in this race last season but is rated 3lbs higher this time. Mountain Peak and Mondammej are the only two CD winners in the field so command respect. But the calls here are JAWWAAL and ROYAL CRUSADE. The former hails from the Michael Dods yard that won this in 2019 and this 6 year-old wasn’t disgraced when fourth the last twice to Copper Knight and Mondammej. He’s better off at the weights with both those this time and should be a tad fresher with an extra week off. Royal Crusade is a Godolphin runner in the race and is also the top-rated. He ran okay in a better race (Listed) last time on the July course here on what was his first run back from being gelded. He showed enough speed that day over 6f to suggest the drop back to 5f is worth a crack and the useful Adam Farragher is booked to take off a handy 5lbs.

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